The Jersey Stakes kick off a tough Day 2 card at Royal Ascot today. Yesterday was an absolute blood-bath. I was willing to take on Toronado and would again in a heart-beat coming off a throat op, off over 300 days and first up with that much pace expected in the race. The pace came and they ran the fastest time in the Queen Anne since 2007. Toronado is simply a freak and proved it yesterday. Shea Shea simply raced flat yesterday and didn’t seem to get into the race, but to be honest, wasn’t beating Sole Power, that was a super run. Our best of the day yesterday was Night of Thunder who was ridden with VERY questionable tactics. The form suggested that the stable mate would lead it up and put a strong tempo on, but instead went back today and Night of Thunder set a moderate tempo which set the race up for Kingman to sprint over the top of him. Knowing those tactics were going to be in-play, we would have taken the $2.20 on offer for Kingman when the tips were put up. That is racing and we move onto Day 2 and hope to have a bit more luck.
Best Best
Ascot Race 3 Treve
Next Best
Ascot Race 4 Sky Lantern
Best Value
Ascot Race 6 Feedyah
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Free UK form from Timeform – http://www.timeform.com/free/
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Royal Ascot Race 1
Another one of those races where you can’t come in with any massive amount of confidence.
On form, there are three key stand-outs for mine.
The main horse who stands out from this crowd is Mustajeeb. He won a Group 3 first up this prep quite well on a slow track and showed some potential at 2. Then last start on a heavy, he simply didn’t seem to handle it as well as expected when running 3rd to Kingman. Looks a smart type and this is a much easier race today.
Musical Comedy is a runner of interest for mine today. Proved his class at 2 and his two runs this prep have been solid enough to measure up here.
Muwaary won well first up this prep and then was just 2L off the win in 3YO-G1 company last start. Looks suited today.
Comments: Small stakes race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Mustajeeb to win. Saver Muwaary
Royal Ascot Race 2
Well bloody hell. How do you honestly match these girls up?
Clouds Rest has made the step up all three races this prep and looks to have the ability to win here.
Dangerous Moonlite has experience on this track which is a big bonus if you ask me and won nicely by a length in easier class. Well bred and should run well.
Ko Cache looks a genuine outsider chance today on last start win.
Tiggy Wiggy was impressive last start on slow and previous runs were all good as well, looks a big chance today.
Spanish Pipedream won her maiden well on a slow track.. but I reckon you have to take her on at the price
Anthem Alexander comes into this under the odds in my mind after that 7L maiden win. Times weren’t that impressive and i’m happy to avoid.
Comments: Tough race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Dangerous Moonlite E/W
Royal Ascot Race 3
The Prince of Wales’s Stakes gives us one of the shortest priced favourites in the race for a fair while in one of the UK’s most impressive stayers in Treve. Treve was beaten as a very short priced fav first up, just, by Cirrus Des Aigles who has gone on to win more Group 1 glory since, so don’t feel bad about that loss on the record. I’m not sure whether the $1.70 should be considered value or not.
Elkaayed isn’t good enough to beat these
Magician measured up in the highest company over the last prep and proved to be a good sort. Last start 2nd behind Noble Mission was solid enough to come into this, but certainly has to improve on that run to win here.
Mukhadram ran a nice 2nd to Al Kazeem, a horse I really rate last year here over the 2011m. His last start run at Meydan behind African Story was very solid… he proved to be back to his best targeted at one of the hardest races in the world, and just falling short. You have to respect that run and the price today looks the value of the race.
Parish Hall has proved to be good value for the owners but hasn’t shown me enough over this prep to suggest a win today.
Zambucca has placed once in six runs and after a 100 day spell needs to find another gear that doesn’t seem to be there.
Dank ran a nice 3rd behind Just A Way at Meydan and before that won three respectable races in a row at Curragh, Arlington and Santa Anita to pick up some good prize money. This horse is no mug and has to be respected.
The Fugue’s last run at Meydan just has to be ignored and we have to rate on the 2nd to Dominant at Sha Tin, 2nd to Magician at Santa Anita and the win over Al Kazeem at Leopardstown. This is a serious horse who does run very poor races from time to time. Last start at Meydan was just that and you wipe it off the record. Every chance today on ability.
Treve proved to be simply too good last prep over at Longchamp and continues to prove just how good the horse is. Treve’s best runs have been seen on soft, but is also undefeated on Good.
Comments: Treve is the best horse in the world based on the Arc run and was not disgraced first up one bit. After my analysis of the field, I have Treve rated closer to the $1.45 odds. The Fugue is the value of the place bet odds.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Treve to win.
Royal Ascot Race 4
Sky Lantern was explosive last year at this carnival winning by a huge 4 lengths. Up in class, she was just beaten in Group 1 company next start but did finish the prep with a Group 1 victory beating home Integral clearly. Have to ignore the only run since at Hong Kong and understand the horse has the most talent of any runner in the race.
Certify went around as $1.40 chance last start at Meydan after winning a Group 2 previously, but didn’t even manage a place! Beat Sky Lantern as a 2YO by a length but missed the majority of her 3YO year. Looks way over the odds today.
Fiesolana finished last prep winning in Group 2 company. Failed first up on slow but ran well on heavy last start. Back to dryer tracks should suit today and has to be respected.
L’Amour De Ma Vie (try say that fast three times) progressed nicely through the grades last prep and picked up a Group 2 at Meydan but failed in Group 1 company to finish the prep. Should run well but I think finds a few too good.
Annecdote can’t be ignored, winning a 26 horse race here last prep as a 3YO. Did get a Group 3 win at Goodwood as well last prep. First up run was ok but has to improve.
Esoterique showed her class over this distance at 3 and returned nicely with two reasonable runs before getting a Group 3 win over Integral last start. Has to improve to best all of these again though.
Gifted Girl isn’t going well enough.
Integral got taken down first up by Esoterique as $2.80 favourite. Very strong first prep when we saw her take out a Group 3 and run second to Sky Lantern. Can improve but others preferred.
Purr Along was a surprise Group 3 winner first up beating Fiesolana on Heavy. Won’t get that ground today.
Comments: Sky Lantern is the class runner while Certify also has claims as a classy filly who is set to show her true poitential at nice odds.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Sky Lantern to win. Smaller bet on Certify.
Royal Ascot Race 5
Prince of Johanne is an 8YO now but first up run this prep was one of the best i’ve seen from the horse in a long while. Up in classa gain today but should improve 2nd up.
Queensberry Rules has been well backed in the market coming into this. Showed quality last year at this course and similar distance for 3rd in a 27 runer race, but hard to have off the runs after that! Been off 263 days.
Sea Shanty is the one who stands out for mine here. First up run this prep was very solid at Sandown and expect he will improve on that run as well.
Abseil did ALOT wrong last start at Epsom but still was very solid and won nicely. Up in class here but weighted nicely and will have every chance.
Red Avenger was heavily hampered by Abseil last start. Looks well in here and can imporve on that run. Looks overs.
Comments: Abseil does look the real deal while Red Avenger showed enough also at odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Abseil to win. Red Avenger smaller bet.
Royal Ascot Race 6
As the odds suggest, this race is wide open, but there is one at odds who I really like in the market here.
Feedyah proved herself two preps back winning at course over 1600m and then last prep went over to Meydan and ran very solid 3rd and 2nds in races worth 150k each. Can improve today having had 112 days off and looks a key chance.
The top weight Majeyda looks a solid chance to be in it at the finish. Freshened up off an ok prep to date and is back in class here. Will most likely be leading at the furlong pole.
Muteela has been well backed. Undefeated over three starts, last start win at Newmarket was nice, but didn’t beat much that day.
Comments: Small play here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Feedyah E/W. Smaller win bet on Majeyda.
Please Note:
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