Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 5. Yesterday started with a bang as we landed a $15 winner, but the rest of it didn’t exactly go to plan. Our Best Bet ran well but didn’t deliver apart from a little extra money on top of the money back for the place. Confidence rates are a little lower than Day 3 which was our most confident day, but the form has been done and we expect bold runs from all our Best Bets. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Ascot Race 3 Dandino (Saver Telescope)
Ascot Race 4 Crown The Kitten
Ascot Race 4 Medicean Man
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Free UK form from Timeform – http://www.timeform.com/free/
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ascot Race 1
Horrible way to start the day, 3 runners who have never run before and a lot of maiden or poor class winners. Form lines and times are hard to match up here, but there is one who stands out to me.
The American runner Crown The Kitten is the one. Ran very nicely behind Sunset Glow who proved to be very strong form lines yesterday in a much harder race than this, with the first three gapping the field. Improvement would mean he wins.
Comments: E/W on Crown The Kitten has to be the play to start the day.
Strategy: Crown the Kitten E/W
Ascot Race 2
Four runners stand out for mine.
Arab Spring has won every race this prep and continues to improve. Has to take another step up with 62kg today but is a very strong colt and will have every chance.
Groundbreaking was a run-away 7L winner on a similar surface first up. Not sure how much we can look into it though.. got the weight for the run.
Aussie Reigns three back run in Group 3 was very strong but last two runs have been poor. Can we forgive today?
Elidor was very game first up winning a CLS2 race very well. Last start found out up in class into Listed company but off 58kg today is weighted nicely here.
Hamelin come sup as a short price fav today. Went close at course and distance last month and has to be considered a big chance on that run.
Comments: Going for value in this race.
Strategy: Groundbreaking E/W. Smaller bet Elidor.
Ascot Race 3
Camborne: First two runs this prep were poor compared to last prep when he looked the real deal. Has to improve significantly today but back to 2400m should help.
Dandino: Hard to ignore Dandino off the two runs in Spring down in Australia. Has a good fresh record and has never missed a place from 3 tries at this track including a win. Suited by track conditions.
Ektihaam: Did nothing right first up and has to be forgiven. Can run well if the horse wants to. Hopefully doesn’t throw the jockey off today!
Eye of the Storm: Form looks ok now with Missunited’s form improvement. Ran well last start of last prep at course over 3200m. Shown best on wet tracks for mine is the issue.
Forgotten Voice: Good horse who didn’t really measure up down in Australia. Last start run 2nd to Mount Athos was solid but has to find MUCH more today. The dryer the better.
Hillstar: Hasn’t shown too much since the win last year here running down Battle of Marengo in 3YO company. Did run nicely enough 2nd to Brown Panther last start but has to find much more today.
Joshua Tree: Bitterly disappointing his last three runs this prep andhasn’t won since 3YO class. Did run well enough in Group company first up, and is back in class today for this, but has to find lengths.
Pether’s Moon: Good win to finish last prep but hasn’t gone on with it. Both runs were ‘solid’ but has to find lengths today to measure up to these runners.
Sharestan: Won nicely first up in Group 3 company. Step up again today and best seen on wetter tracks if you ask me.
Telescope: Both runs this prep first and second up were nice but not exactly standout runs. Is his best back on dry ground? Have to respect.
Comments: Hard to pass up the price on Dandino here. Have to saver Telescope. Hoping the real Ektihaam doesn’t turn up.
Strategy: Backing Dandino to win. Saver Telescope
Ascot Race 4
Aljamaaheer: Very talented horse who measured up and just missed behind Declaration of War last year. Targeted at 1200m instead of 1600m this and last prep.. went close in Group 3 and should run well.
American Devil: Group 3 winner 2nd up this prep on slow. Found best on wetter tracks but still goes well on conditions today. Times were sound.
Darwin: Another Australian state or town! Group 3 winner last year and first up didn’t handle the heavy. Return at best today and will run well.. best seen over further.
Es Que Love: Ran ok first up over the 1000m early in the week. Has to improve significantly.
Gordon Lord Byron: Disappointing since strong win over in Aus.. really was wanting it less wet but on the way back didn’t measure up in HK. Have to find more today.. never placed at track!
Hawkeyethenoo: Decent horse but last four runs all been on slow so hard to rate.
Jack Dexter: Ran well enough first up behind Sole Power… has to find an extra 2 lengths here.
Medicean Man: Finished off strongly at big odds last start early in the week. Suited by extra 200m today.
Montiridge: Decent runs in Group company last prep and firs tup run was ok but best shown on wet in this grade for mine.
Music Master: Good easy win two back but didn’t measure up last start. Can’t have.
Slade Power: Won Group 2 last prep and first up run with high weight on heavy won well Group 3 company. Goes well on good or slow, but best recent form been on wet tracks.
Tawhid: Decent horse. Failed first up in Group 3 company and to mine isn’t mature enough yet in open class.
Tropics: Three runs this prep all horrible. Was a very good Group 3 winner to end prep at course and distance last prep as well. Has the ability and best on dryer tracks.
Astaire: Big up in class last start and ran well.. but up again and can’t see winning this.
Due Diligence: Measured up well in 3Yo but this is much harder. No thanks.
Comments: Have to go with value here. Questionmarks on all the favs.
Strategy: Medicean Man E/W. Smaller bet on Tropics.
Ascot Race 5
Painful just a 29 horse race.
Hamza was huge two back when beating Es Que Love and Aljamaaher. Has to be respected again today and has the ability to blow these all away. At the odds, I’m happy to be on for a very small amount E/W. Betfair will be paying first 4 places.
Comments: So many chances, so little form to match up between them all.
Strategy: Hamza E/W
Ascot Race 6
Not sure how we are meant to match up the jumps form in this race with the stayers so the convidence will certainly be low here.
I have to default back to a horse I know has a load of ability in Tiger Cliff. Goes well at track and handles the distance and track condition.
Comments: Tiger Cliff the standout.. but this is a hard race to match up form lines.
Strategy: Tiger Cliff to win
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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