Welcome to The Profits preview for Emirates Stakes Day from Flemington on 5 November 2016. After such a good Melbourne Cup day, we just didn’t have much go our way on Oaks day with both our best bets of the day going close but finding one too good or a bad ride to affect our results. Nevermind, as we get to Stakes day which is generally the best betting day of the carnival. I’m really keen on the international form coming into today and there are a few at odds that are well overs giving us great value throughout the card. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Vadamos – 3.5 units @ $4.30. Endless Drama – 1.5 units @ $13
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Francis of Assisi – 2 units @ $3.80
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 8 – Lankan Rupee – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7/$2.40
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Rising Romance – 1.5 units @ $15/$4.30 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 7
Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Maribyrnong Plate
Not a race that you really want to be getting deep into with so many unseen runners with unexposed form. Azazel and Wait For No One both won very well in their races at Moonee Valley and Caulfield on different surfaces.
It’s always hard in a race like this to bet around those that have had a proper jump out like Resin or those that have the runs on the board in Azazel and Wait For No One and I get the feeling Aspect would have had a run in the race race as Azazel if he was ready early last month, telling me he is a step behind the other one.
Comments: I’d be leaning to Azazel on the Each-Way for the McEvoy stable that continues to produce strong 2YO results down in Melbourne.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Azazel E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Starlight Children’s Foundation Plate
1. Lord Durante: Old mate ran a blinder last start at Moonee Valley beating an average bunch that day but Taiyoo has come out and won since interestingly. Always goes well over this distance and has to be respected.
2. Nozomi: 4th behind Lord Durante last start. Had every possible chance it seemed and has to improve today to be a factor here.
3. Shamkiyr: Hasn’t shown a lot this prep but did last start get within 2L of the winners in Adelaide down in grade. Has to improve back to Flemington today.
4. Master Zephyr: 2nd to Pemberley three back but well beaten the last two starts. Drops back in class but has to improve on last few runs to be a top chance.
5. Hipparchus: Nice enough run 2nd in much easier grade last start coming off a poor 7th and 5th starting the prep. First run at track but goes okay at distance.
6. Radical: Sharply beaten the past four starts and while he has the ability, I can’t see the form today on previous runs.
7. Sadaqa: On pace runner. Well beaten the past five runs. Even back in class he is outclassed on form.
8. Little White Cloud: First starter Williams yard runner that has been gelded since coming out here. Hasn’t run since 2013… ran 2nd to a very good horse in Leading Light and 6th in a Irish Derby. Best runs in 2013 were 108 Timeform rating which would more than have him competitive here.
9. Nisos: Average first up but ran well 5th behind Refulgent and Freshwater Storm at Moonee Valley last start. Refulgent failed since. Has to improve but will like the extra distance.
10. Thunder Teddington: Well beaten over 1600m and 2400m this prep, but the runs weren’t terrible. Back to 2000m and back in class, wouldn’t shock for a better run here.
11. Encosta Line: Ran on Thursday so doubt they back up here. Fairly beaten that day.
12. Charlevoix: Listed winner over 2400m and a very good type. Went around SA Derby favourite but only managed 5th. First up very plain over 1400m. Sharp rise in distance… Clearly has the ability and will run well.
13. Curragh: Fairly beaten favourite last start at MV in much easier grade behind Black Sheep. Unknown over the distance but on breeding clearly will get the 2000m.
14. Kilmacurragh: BM-70 winner over 1400m first up. Last prep ran well in 3Y-BM78 over 2000m at course and distance. Obviously has ability but clearly has to show it here.
Comments: At the weights, Little White Cloud is very well in for a horse with a Timeform Rating of 108. If the stable have this horse correct and back from injury then i see no reason after the gelding operation that the horse can’t step back and put this field away over 2000m.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Little White Cloud E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 2600m – Queen Elizabeth Stakes
1. Francis of Assisi: Nice strong win in the Bendigo Cup and step up to 2600m looks even better suited on previous runs for him today. Rates well from an on speed position from a good barrier.
2. Howard Be Thy Name: Every chance in the Bendigo Cup and simply smashed similar to previous starts. Hard to find here today.
3. Tom Melbourne: Got away with slow sectionals last start in the Lexus from on speed and sprinted away with it at the top of the straight before being claimed late. Similar distance and can run well again.
4. Jim’s Journey: Nice enough horse and big step up in distance again today should suit coming off a BM-90 win in easier class. Has to improve on his G2 Adelaide Cup 4th.
5. De Little Engine: Well backed in the Lexus but never got the speed he required.. ran home soundly. Will run well again today but has to improve onwards.
6. Second Bullet: Every possible chance but well beaten on the day by Francis of Assisi. Hard to see a turn around on that run.
7. Vengeur Masque: Ran a very nice race 8th in the Caulfield Cup. Back in class, ran 4th behind Almandin in the Bart Cummings two runs back. Has ability to run well.
8. Sly Romance: Horrible in the Moi cup after a nice win at Moonee Valley over 1600m. Back to a dryer track.. has won over 3400m previously.. probably needs further?
9. Angel’s Touch: BM-82 winner. Beaten by Cinnamon Carter last start in BM-78 grade at Moonee Valley with no excuses. Clearly has to improve.
10. Aagas: Two runs this prep in BM-64 and BM-70 grade and couldn’t place. Take on.
Comments: Very keen on Francis of Assisi just sitting off the speed today and pushing it along if Buick feels they are going too slow.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Francis of Assisi – 2 units @ $3.80
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Hilton Stakes
1. Souchez: Push to be on speed from an outside barrier and every chance to be 3-wide the trip. Well beaten 2nd favourite last start behind Spright. Previous prep ran well in 2YO group races and won in Group 2 over 1200m. 1400m shouldn’t be an issue today but certainly a tough ask with the 60kg off that first run.
2. Tessera: Very nice run 2nd to Detective two back over the distance at this course. Last start was very poor at Moonee Valley on a firm track and gets similar today. May really need sting out to show his best? Good barrier.
3. Benz: Very good win two back at Moonee Valley beating a good type in Kens Dream but last start from out the back ran poorly and pulled up badly. Better than that run and has to be considered today. Has to push forward from the barrier.
4. Niccolance: Maiden winner first and then a start to finish win next start at Randwick in a very smart time over 1400m in easier grade than this. Another step up here but it’s hard to ignore the class times run and he looks a big chance here.
5. Valliano: Fairly beaten last start in a slowly run race at Caulfield. Previous win was in medium times and will appreciate more tempo on here. Bad barrier so will need to work hard to get forward is an obvious issue.
6. Inside Agent: Never suited last start when beaten 1.7L at Caulfield when they ran more than a second slowly than his previous race win. Very good barrier to go back and run on with today and has the ability to win.. but will need to jump with them today so he doesn’t end up last in running.
7. Sword of Light: Well beaten over 1600m last start – simply too far and hot a tempo. Back to 1400m but this is her maximum distance range and gets an awkward barrier. Place at best.
8. Crafted: Still a maiden. Went very close last start behind Archives at Moonee Valley. Step up in 1400m looks suitable and good barrier.
9. Verstappen: 3YB-64 winner last start at Cranbourne in a nice enough time gapping the 6 horse field. Clearly a big step up today after failing two back in similar grade when pulling up lame.
10. Dam Ready: Gone around a very short price all four runs this prep and has not found a win. Fairly beaten the past two starts and it’s hard to suggest her even from the barrier.
11. Magnarock: Best run was two back when ran well from midfield claimed late by Inside Agent at course and distance. Well back in class last start up to 61kg and couldn’t place. Hard to suggest
12. Man From Uncle: Fairly beaten last start in a 5 horse race by 2.8L. Big step up again. Oliver takes the price so has to believe it can improve onwards.
13. Simply Invincible: Fairly beaten the last two starts after winning a maiden. Doesn’t look up to this field.
14. Enigman: Strong speed out of the gates and expected to lead after a nice enough green win at Bairnsdale over 1200m. Step up in distance suits but obviously needs to improve up in class.
15. Gratwick: Weir runner. Maiden winner on Heavy. Beaten by a decent type on Ashlor last start over 1200m in 3YB-64 grade. Has to improve but has a 3rd to Extreme Choice on the record as a 2YO.
16. Palladian: Horrible last start and clearly didn’t handle the conditions. Looked well suited that day as well. Will improve back to his best here i’d imagine and is in with a shot.
17. Wimborne: Well beaten the last two starts and it’s hard to see him being competitive even back to this distance.
18. Ceylon: Maiden winner last start at Cranbourne in decent time on a Soft track. Clearly has ability but has to prove it in a different grade.
19. Ballet Master: 1300m start to finish winner in only fair time last start. Has to show much more here.
20. Butch Kissidy: Price runner that won as favourite last start at Pakenham. Wasn’t anything special and has to improve.
Comments: A tough betting race. I really liked the early price on Inside Agent and had a play, but I can’t entertain the $9s with the chance the horse may jump poorly again… back in-play if jumps midfield or better. Niccolance looks the real deal on the last start run at Randwick and certainly won’t be disadvantaged by how the rail played on Thursday.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Niccolance to win. Smaller bet Inside Agent.
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – Antler Luggage Handicap
1. Observational: Change of stable suggests the Williams camp lost faith in him. Went around 2nd favourite last start at Moonee Valley and showed nothing. Struggle to back even back to this class today on the previous three runs.
2. Mabeel: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield when over race and didn’t really run into it off the slow tempo. Expect a much better run today second up and up to 1600m. Group 1 competitive horse.
3. Petrology: Old mate has been up for several months. His best was good enough to win open class at Caulfield. Gone close a few times since but well beaten on wetter tracks recently. Back to a dry and back to this track down in grade looks well in at the weights from the barrier.
4. Flow Meter: Maps to sit just off the pace. Won once from the past 20-25 starts is a big issue. been running well recently and gone close 2nd in two of his last four runs on softer tracks. Last start on a dry track had his chances. Has to improve even though back to this grade.
5. Survived: Goes well enough first up. Best runs are over further than this and deeper into prep in easier races. Has to find his very best.
6. Coronation Shallan: Two runs this prep and shown nothing to suggest the improvement required to be winning here.
7. Coldstone: Strong run third behind Master Reset last start. Respect the horses ability and he can run well again here off some strong form lines.
8. Lucky Paddy: Every possible last chance at Moonee Valley but fairly beaten on the day. Unplaced from two attempts at this track a concern. Clearly has the ability but has to show it.
9. Carlo Bugatti: Williams runner. Lightly raced since coming here in 2014 off strong group racing in Ireland and the UK. Good runs in similar grade but clearly hasn’t produced as expected or wanted for the stable as they only placed him in this race after 7-8 months between runs. This is his class and he will go close.
10. Streetwise Savoire: Three runs this prep but never really got close to a win. Step up in distance and class again here. Has a lot to prove.
11. Last Bullet: BM-70 winner last start. 1.8L 8th in 3Y-GP3 grade two preps back. Up in distance should suit but this is a big jump in grade.
12. Loyalty Man: Well beaten both runs this prep. Looked a good type last prep as a 3Yo winner but his not come back the same type it seems.
13. Boom Time: Been running well in easier grade this prep going up in distance. 3rd behind Delicacy over 2400m last prep and 3YO-LR winner over 2200m. Better will be over further but will clearly run well today.
14. Hell on Earth: Very well backed last start at Moonee Valley in harder grade of race and only managed 0.6L 4th that day – was a good run but may have felt the ground. May be a little too dry for him again today with his best runs in the past being on tracks with sting out.
Comments: I’m quite surprised with the price on offer for Carlo Bugatti here today considering the stable and the two runs last prep measuring up to similar grades of races. Coldstone also looks a nice price expected to improve here and Petrology back to a good track will improve a truckload also. Mabeel an obvious chance also. Last Bullet looks under the odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Carlo Bugatti and Petrology
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – 7News Matriarch Stakes
2. Zanbagh: Very strong run as really expected last start when 6th behind I Am A Star over the 1600m in FM-Gp1 grade. Back to M-GP2 here and looks well suited. Only query is how good she can be at the 2000m today.
3. Kaniana: Big improvement shown last start at Moonee Valley to claim the Group 3 win on a softer track. Back to firmer today, she will sit off the speed from the barrier and be given every possible chance. Query over the 2000m for mine.
4. Rocket Commander: Continues to run well without winning. Step up to 2000m actually looks a positive move for her here. Barrier a big issue though.
5. Gabella: Hugely disappointing after a bright start to the prep. Failed to fire the past two strats and it’s hard to like her here. Will most likely be 3-wide the trip.
6. Rising Romance: Very disappointing last start. Been working the house down but clearly didn’t want to be there last start. This may be her last shot at it today. Ignore she went around last start. Big chance up to the 2000m today. This is a horse that has been placed in WFA-G1 at course and distance and she is in with 55kg.
7. Jessy Belle: Not suited by the slow tempo last start well beaten behind Sort After. Looks like they are going to send her around again today up in distance and a stronger tempo. Place chance i’d imagine.
8. Denmagic: Big run last start over the 1600m when 0.5L off winning the Group 1 behind I Am A Star. Up to 2000m should suit from the barrier as she will settle and come late. Just not sure how effective she will be first time 2000m but clearly a class horse.
9. Manageress: Ran well enough first up this prep but failed to show anything the past two runs. Last start back to form beaten 0.6L 3rd on a heavy track at Sale. Goes well at this track and over this distance. Has a 2nd to Lucia Valentina on the record. best on softer tracks a concern.
10. Lady Le Fay: Horrible last start at Moonee Valley and may not have handled the conditions. Back to a firmer track and back over 2000m+ today. Has some solid form lines but has to prove herself today.
12. Alaskan Rose: Ran fairly well last start at Moonee Valley from out the back for 3rd. Never really a threat though. Up in distance should be suitable but I really feel 1600m is her best distance. Wants softer.
13. Cinnamon Carter: Nice enough win over 2500m last start. Back in distance the worry. Can run well but struggle to suggest a win back at the distance up in grade.
14. Amarela: Struggle to suggest a backup run here today but you never know. Gets the firm track and distance but this is a very hard task!
15. Sort After: Huge win last start on Cup day from start to finish. Gets well in here again at the weights and has to be considered a huge chance. Surely something takes her on out front today though?
16. Happy Hannah: Well placed Snowden runner that has been running well without winning. Has to prove her class up in grade here but did place in G1 grade as a 3YO over 2000m.
17. Powderworks: Weir runner. Horrible last start and beaten by Cinnamon Carter the previous start. Has to improve.
18. Replique: Will push on from out front but struggle to suggest her going break neck speeds with Sort After lines up. 3YO-LR winner… but three runs this prep has shown nothing.
Comments: Rising Romance gets one final chance here today and is massively over the odds for a WFA-G1 class runner down in here off 55kg from a very favourable barrier.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15
Strategy: Rising Romance – 1.5 units @ $15/$4.30 Each-Way
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – Emirates Stakes
1. Happy Trails: Ignore last start in the Cox Plate when never suited by the tempo or the track conditions. Gets a firm track today and can run a blinder if returns to his very best here. Don’t be shocked if he does with Blinkers off
2. Hauraki: Disappointing run in the Cox Plate and didn’t seem to get the distance on the soft track which is strange for a horse that has a win on heavy on record. Epsom win was good but has to go to another level to win this.
3. The United States: Crystal Mile win was pretty weak in what he had to do and this will be his 3rd run in the space of 2 weeks after running 4th in the Cantala Stakes getting too far back and not given the best of rides, still running well. Get back run on as per normal.
4. Happy Clapper: They would be happy with the 6th well beaten in the Cox Plate. Not convinced he got the distance especially with the pressure on and even got the soft track. Firmer track today. Has to improve.
5. Vadamos: Huge run 4th in the Cox Plate when pulled his head off all the way and still managed to run well! Back to 2000m and back to a firmer track is ideal as he clearly runs better on both. Ear Muffs are crucial gear wise today and he is the horse to beat from the barrier. D Oliver a nice addition.
6. Awesome Rock: Ran a blinder in a tough staying Cox Plate and is ready to run well here today back to a firmer surface and a less brutal tempo. Clearly has the ability to measure up but has to show it.
8. Endless Drama: Dismiss this classy horse at your own peril. G1 2nd to Gleneagles and then returned for a G1 3rd behind Euro Charline and Belardo in a career peak run. Disappointed the runs after that not going near career best runs, but clearly goes best on firm ground. Looks a massive chance. Has a higher timeform rating that Scottish!
9. Palentino: Horrible the last two starts after a very good soft track win in the Makybe Diva. Not sure what to make of him here but up to 2000m doesn’t look ideal?
10. Vanbrugh: Nice win last start at Caulfield beating Tom Melbourne given a treat of a ride. Big step up in class but will certainly be there in the finish.
11. Tivaci: Ran home strongly in the Cantala Stakes for third and did the same the previous start in the Toorak. Well up in weight here today is a big issue. Not very well weighted but always runs a strong race.
12. Good Standing: Easy enough win last start in 3Yo G3 grade last start at Caulfield. Huge step up in class and he isn’t this good IMO.
13. Seaburge: Found out in the Cantala Stakes and not convinced he is well suited here over the 2000m… they would have gone to the derby if they thought he was a strong stayer.
Comments: I really like two international imports there and I feel both are well over the odds. Vadamos is going to run a huge race from on speed – Vadamos has a very good turn of foot which is most important for a race like this today. The clear value in the race is the 122 timeform rated Endless Drama. This big bulky type is more than well suited in at the weights and had a very strong 8L trial win heading into this today.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8
Strategy: Vadamos – 3.5 units @ $4.30. Endless Drama – 1.5 units @ $13
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – Darley Classic
1. Lankan Rupee: Very good return last start at Caulfield when held up for runs with 51kg. Finds himself 4kg better off today against runners such as Our Boy Malachi and back down the straight where he arguably is best suited. Looks a massive chance.
2. Turn Me Loose: Struggle to understand the 1200m distance here today again. Best runs have clearly been over further than this in the past. Well beaten last start over 1100m.
3. The Quarterback: Too far back last start at Moonee Valley runing some with some strong sectionals in the Manikato in a race run and won by the leader. Obviously better suited back to Flemington and well in here.
4. Japonisme: 3-wide no cover ran very well finding a soft track last start in the Manikato and returned to form. Has run well previous here down the straight but a firm track is on the cards and he will need to find lengths on his best.
5. Fell Swoop: Ran well 2nd in the Manitako last start. Previous start 1L off Malaguerra at equal weights in the Schillaci. First time down the straight a big negative against proven types.
6. Our Boy Malachi: Huge win last start at Caulfield. First time down the straight of concern obviously but he is certainly running well enough. Giving Lankan Rupee a big turn around at the weights today.
7. Malaguerra: Ran very well first up when wide and came home well behind the well weighted Star Turn. Goes well down the straight and is looking for the 1200m today. One to consider.
8. Holler: Horrible first up at Moonee Valley on the soft track. Back to a firmer surface today but first time down the straight at Flemington and didn’t exactly like it over at Ascot. Looks better around a bend.
9. Keen Array: Two wins in a row before fairly beaten last start at course and distance by Illustrious Lad and two others when 4th. Step up in class here… hard to see anything beter than a place.
10. Spieth: Strong win first up in Listed grade up at Randwick as a lead in. Won four in a row beating second raters on the way and has to measure up at the top level today. Looks a step below this but could run a bold race.
11. English: Disappointing last start in the Manikato well beaten 2L 7th. Previous two runs beaten favourite up in Sydney. First run down the straight makes it hard to see the improvement required.
12. Sheidel: Always runs a game race. Fairly beaten three back by Hellbent but won the next two in G3 company, only just holding on at Flemington last Saturday. Has to clearly improve to win this but will be there or there abouts in the finish.
Comments: Several key chances here today down the straight but I can’t look past Lankan Rupee who I feel is back to near his best form and will be going very close today back down in the weights. The Quarterback looks the main danger.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 7
Strategy: Lankan Rupee – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7/$2.40
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Emirates Airline Handicap
1. Akavoroun: Big run last start when 0.2L off Ulmann. 2.5kg better off today in a much smaller field. Has to be considered.
2. Entirely Platinum: Hasn’t shown much since the first up WFA-G2 run behind Miss Rose de Lago. Failed last start ran last. Hard to suggest here.
3. Ulmann: Very strong run two back winning well at course and distance. Last start also ran well on an unsuitable surface 3rd in WFA-G2 behind The United States. Firm track is ideal. Big chance.
6. Lord Aspen: Two solid runs heading into this today beating some second raters compared to the competition today. Has to show his very best form here… won 7 from 13 so no mug! Can compete.
7. Redkirk Warrior: Group 1 placed in Hong Kong over 1800m. First up over 1200m ran a blinder of a race 2nd to Sir Bacchus. Up to 1400m is ideal here and gets in well at the weights from barrier 2.
8. Demonstrate: Going through the grades well and he has never won in this grade previously. Won 3 on the row and gets in well at the weights here. Good win on Tuesday.. will be tough to back up so soon but they wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t up to it. Barrier hurts.
9. Rough Justice: Old mate continues to run well. Ignore his soft track form and rate on his best runs on Good tracks. Went very well close 2nd to Chetwood at Caulfield two back and really goes well at this track. Can cause an upset.
10. Lucky Liberty: BM-70 and BM-78 wins heading into this. Didn’t beat much on either occasion. Up to 1400m will suit but clearly has to improve.
Comments: Probably one of the toughest races on the card due to different form lines and the quality of the runners. Is there going to be a genuine speed in the race? I’m not convinced so. Rough Justice is a massive blowout chance at odds. Redkirk Warrior, Ulmann and Demonstrate all appeal at their short quotes although Demonstrate does look under the odds. I just have to go with Rough Justice at the odds. Of the shorties, I would have sided with Redkirk only just at the odds.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Rough Justice E/W
