Basketball – NBA Tips and Bets – Saturday 14 January 2012


Game 1
7-3 Philly at home take on 1-9 Washington
Current Line: 13 (Philly)
Current Overs/Unders: 182.5

Philly last 5 games
Excuse last up loss on a back-to-back-to-back schedule to knicks.
Won the previous four at home by 27, 10, 35 and 23. The 10 point win was against top 16 team Indiana.
Preseason Philly beat Washington by 25 and 7 (testing some players it seemed).

Washington on the road this season has lost every game.
They have lost by 14, 18, 8, 21 and 18.
Excluding the last two games (both 78 points), Washington is having around 100 points scored against them a game while managing to score around 85 themselves.
This is consistant with Philly who has been averaging around 100 per game while having around 85 scored against them every game (85,85,86 the last three games)
Both pre-season games let in 181 and 195 points between these teams. With this in mind we expect the line to get overs.

Bet: Philly to cover the line
Bet: Over 182.5 points

Game 2
2-8 Charlotte at home take on Detroit 2-8
Current Line: 3.5 (Charlotte)
Current Overs/Unders: 176.5

Detroit have lost their last five away games by 9, 24, 23, 11 and 12 and have not got within 9 points of any team for 6 games.
Bobcats have been suffering a similar form slump losing today to In-form Atlanta by 30 points away. Their away form has been poor but their home form is a little better losing by 1 point to Miami in the first week at home.
This is surely a game of crap team vs crap team but -3.5 for Bobcats at home is reason enough for us to back them.
Detroit have only scored 90 points or more twice this year from 10 games while bobcats have achieved this 6 times.
Interestingly, bobcats have only kept one team under 90 points this year while the same is true for Detroit.
A hard Overs/Unders to pick but considering both teams have only kept 1 of 10 games opponents under the 90 point mark, we are liking the Overs.

Bet: Bobcats to cover the line
Bet: Over 176.5 points


Game 3
3-7 New Orleans at home take on 3-7 Minnesota
Current Line: 1 (Minnesota)
Current Overs/Unders: 182.5

If you were to pick two of the hardest todate fixtues, these two teams have had it with a maximum of two easy games in their draws.
Minnesota have been very disappointing in their last five games with loses to Memphis, Chicago and worst of all, Cleveland and Toronto (both by 10 and 11 points) with only a win over 1-9 Washington.
Hornets on the other hand have also only won 1 of last 5 but that win was over 7-4 Denver two games back, away, by 13 points. Their last game loss to Oklahoma (Equal first overall) by 10 points was a tough game also.
They have not been disgraced in their last 6 games and should be able to take care of the T-Wolves here.

Timberwolves have not been kept under 86 points all season by any team while their opponents have been averaging in the 90s.
Hornets in their last 7 games have scored around 90 points and have only kept one team under 90 points.
This Overs/Unders will be close and is one of our least confident of the day

Bet: New Orleans to cover the line
Bet: Overs 182.5

Game 4
6-5 Dallas at home take on 4-6 Milwaukee
Current Line: 8.5 (Dallas)
Current Overs/Unders: 184

Milwaukee are 0-6 on the road while Dallas are 4-2 at home
Milwaukee have had two good recent wins with a 3 point win over the Spurs and a 9 point win over detroit at home. Before that they lost 5 games on the road with some fairly close loses.
Dallas have won 4 of their last five games with a 5 point away win over boston, 14 point away win over detroit, 15 point win over new orleans at home, 9 point win over Phoenix at home and a loss to Spurs away.
It is also important to note that Dallas is one of only two teams to beat Oklahoma this year.
Dallas has averaged 96 points at home this season with no score under 93 points recorded. Bucks on the other hand have been averaging 90 points on away trips with their opponents averaging high 90s
This should be a very close line but once again we feel the Overs should be obtainable.

Bet: Dallas to cover line
Bet: Overs 184

Game 5
7-4 San Antonio Spurs at home take on 7-3 Portland
Current Line: 1.5 (Spurs)
Current Overs/Unders: 193.5

Spurs are 7-0 at home while Portland are 1-2 on the road.
Sounds straight forward? Nothing in betting is this straight forward. Portlands only away win was against 10-2 Oklahoma. Add to that impressive wins over the lakers, clipps and cleveland recently and you have a good record for Portland.
Spurs last few games have been interesting with a close win at home vs the Rockets after a 3 point loss to Milwaukee and 8 point loss to Oklahoma on the road. Spurs rarely get blown away by teams and this will be no different.
On recent form, Portland have the edge in this one.
Six of the Spurs 11 games have been over 100 points this season with only one game under 93 points from them. In turn, they have been involved in high scoring games against high scoring opponents with the last four games all over 196 points scored.
When Portland play quality teams, they invite points with Clippers, Orlando, Lakers and Oklahoma games recently all going over 200 points.
This is a great line which should have been set closer to the 200 mark.

Bet: Portland to cover the line
Bet: Overs 193.5

Game 6
4-6 Phoenix Suns at home take on 2-9 New Jersey Nets
Current Line: 7 (Phoenix)
Current Overs/Unders: 197.5

The Suns have been very inconsistent the last week with a great 25 point win over Portland followed up by a 16 point win over the Bucks. Then it all went wrong with a 16 point loss away at Lakers then a home 11 point loss to Cleveland.
We expect the Suns to have learned from that loss to Cleveland.
The Nets have been playing some decent ball recently even though they have only beaten Washington and Toronto this year.
They got within 8 of Denver in their last away game while within 5 of Atlanta and 11 of Miami at home.
We don’t really like this line, it’s fairly close in our eyes but we have to go with the home team.
The suns have only let three teams score over 100 points against them this year in Philly, Oklahoma and Cleveland in the last game due to poor defense (101) while they have only scored over 100 (x2 102) three times this year.
The Nets on the other hand invite points to be scored against them with 6 of their 11 games having 100 or more scored against them. This line is close to what it should be but we expect many mistakes from each team to result in a under.

Bet: Phoenix Suns to cover the line
Bet: Under 197.5

Game 7
8-4 L.A Lakers at home take on 5-5 Cleveland
Current Line: 10 (Lakers)
Current Overs/Unders: 187.5

Cleveland have surprised a few this year with their progression against the lower-placed team in the league and due to a good draw, have been able to win a good number of games.
Cleveland have only lost by 10 or more in two games this year.
Lakers have been on a roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. The Lakers have been winning very convincingly at home and should take care of Cleveland with ease.
This line will be touch and go but we have Lakers winning by the line.
The Lakers are very consistant in their scoring. They have scored over 90 in all but one game all year and only once scored over 100. In turn, they have only let two teams score over 100.
The Cavs have scored 91 or above in 8 of their 10 games all year with 101 and 105 in their last two.
Lakers interestingly have kept their opponents to under 87 in the last three games.
Another close line but if Lakers are to cover the line then the Under is going to be the result.

Bet: L.A Lakers to cover the line
Bet: Under 187.5

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not   recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed   above. Bet at your own risk.


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