Tomorrow might be all about the Boxing Day Test, the Sydney To Hobart yacht race and recovering from today’s over-indulgence, for most people Down Under… but for The Big Dog and other basketball fanatics, it’s all about the NBA Christmas Day extravaganza. Five back-to-back games and over 12 hours of virtually non-stop action, on easily the biggest day of every regular season. To mark this occasion, The Big Dog is going all-out and nominating his best plays in every game! Santa may have brought the presents… but for Christmas profits, look no further than The Big Dog!
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat
The Miami Heat love playing on Christmas Day and no Heat player loves the occasion more than veteran All-Star Dwayne Wade. Since coming into the league in 2003, Wade is an imposing 9-1 in Christmas Day games, including 4-0 at home. They host the New Orleans Pelicans, who are playing in their first Christmas match since 2008, when the then-Hornets were lead by a young Chris Paul. The recent form of these two sides makes it difficult to find solid value around the result of the match. It’s hard to suggest that Miami won’t win the game… but the 5.5-point line is uncomfortable, given the slow improvement from the Pelicans, who have split their last 16 games after beginning the season 1-11. New Orleans remain one of the poorest road teams in the league (3-13) but the Heat have been inconsistent at home, going 4-4 in their last eight, after winning eight of their first ten. That combination of factors is enough to keep The Big Dog clear of trying to pick a winner, while the almost total contrast in styles makes the Total Game Score market a complete no-go. This game is going to be all about one man. Dwayne Wade may be averaging his lowest points per game since his rookie season (18.5) but that number is better at home (19.8) and significantly better on Christmas Day (25.8), including a 31-point effort in a 101-91 win over the Cavaliers, last year. This season, Wade has also poured in 58 points in two games played after two days rest, shooting at 51.1%. His points line is set just a single point above his season average, which is too good to refuse. Wade will pace the Heat against the high-scoring Pelicans, who are prone to lapses on the defensive end and should have little trouble reaching 20 points.
Selection
Over 19.5 (Dwayne Wade – Points) @ $1.87 (William Hill)
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder
This match should be a genuine contest between two of the better teams in their respective conferences… but while the Thunder have been hitting their stride in recent outings, the Bulls have found things a lot tougher. Especially when playing away from home. Chicago sit two wins below .500 on the road, while OKC have quietly won their last eight at home. That certainly accounts for the 9-point spread being offered but that is a very dangerous number, given the talent on the Bulls roster. Five out of Chicago’s last six losses have come by six points or less. While the Thunder will be expected to handle their business and may very well do so by a handy margin, The Big Dog is looking at the Head-to-Head/Total Points market as a more lucrative option, with more statistical support. Oklahoma City have won nine of their last ten matches, primarily due to a major improvement on the defensive end. Since defeating the Dallas Mavericks 117-114 on November 22nd, the Thunder have only conceded an average of 91 points in games they win and in every win since beating Memphis 125-88 on December 8th, the game total has been under 206 points. For their part, the Bulls don’t play in many high-scoring games. Although new coach Fred Hoiberg has the team operating at a higher pace than they did under Tom Thibodeau, they rank 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.4 points per 100 possessions. They have retained their defensive identity from the Thibodeau era, as the third-best team in the league in defensive efficiency (97.7). Overall, Chicago have only played in five games all season with a points total of over 205… and one of those was a quadruple-overtime epic, against the Detroit Pistons. The Big Dog expects the Thunder to extend their streak at home, in a game that’s more defensive than the bookies are anticipating.
Selection
Oklahoma City Thunder/Under 205.5 (Head-to-Head/Total Points) @ $2.50 (Luxbet)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors
The highlight of the schedule comes in game number three, with a rematch of the 2015 NBA Finalists, Golden State and Cleveland. The Big Dog has been studying this game intently and will say right off the bat… literally anything could happen, regarding the game winner, points spread and game total. In an ironic twist, it is the Cavaliers, who were ravaged by injury both in the NBA Finals and earlier this season, who appear to be the healthier squad for this game. The Warriors will be without Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut’s back has troubled him recently, while Cleveland have at last found themselves with a full rotation, now that Kyrie Irving is back on deck. Golden State are undefeated at home and will deserve favouritism but counting out LeBron & Co in a game that you just know they circled on the calendar as soon as it was confirmed, is definitely not a smart move. Instead, The Big Dog is looking to cash in on the production of each team’s best player and primary scorer. Steph Curry has been otherworldly this season, leading the NBA with 31.2 points per game, shooting 51.6% from the field and 44.8% from beyond the arc. LeBron’s stats might not be as headline-worthy but he is improving with each passing month. His 26.4 points per game is currently the fourth-most in the league and that has been on the rise, due to averaging 27.9 in December. In six games played on aFriday, it’s higher still (29.7). In fact, through 12 total Friday games, Curry and James combine for an average of 61.5 points. If that trend continues, they will clear the mark set by William Hill by four points. These men are clearly the best two players in basketball and this is where they will show just how far above the pack they are.
Selection
Over 57.5 (LeBron James & Stephen Curry – Combined Points) @ $1.87 (William Hill)
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
This should be a quick one to explain for The Big Dog. Very quick, in fact. The Spurs will win this game and should win it with a greater level of ease than the odds appear to suggest. San Antonio have not lost a game in which they scored 100 points or more, since dropping their season opener to the Thunder, 112-106. In the 16 games they have won since, when scoring at least 100, the average winning margin has been an astonishing 20.75 points. The last time the Spurs won a game without scoring in triple figures was a 95-70 thrashing of Milwaukee, on December 2nd. The Houston Rockets have conceded at least 102 points in 14 of 15 losses, this season and it would be a tremendous upset, even allowing for home-court advantage, if the Rockets were to win. With that being said, The Big Dog is taking the “Pick Your Own Line” option and going with half the Spurs’ average winning margin that was previously mentioned. Again, the odds on offer are simply too good to refuse. So much so that the usual rule about lines over -7.5 is being temporarily bypassed. Hopefully that decision proves to be an astute one.
Selection
San Antonio Spurs -10.5 (Pick Your Own Line) @ $2.75 (Luxbet)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers
The Battle of Los Angeles concludes Christmas Day for basketball fans and while nothing is a given in the NBA, it’s hard to see anything here but a blowout in favour of the Clippers. The points spread is a little too much for a team that is only 6-7 on the road, so The Big Dog is looking for something more in the short-term. Luckily, we don’t have to look far to find something that fits the bill. The Lakers have stumbled out of the blocks in 10 of their last 11 matches, losing the opening term by at least three points, with the last four games seeing them fall behind by an average of 12.25 points, after twelve minutes of play. With that kind of performance on one side of a contest, all that really needs to be seen is that their next opponent is average or better at the start of games. The Clippers have won six of their last ten first quarters, with one tie and three losses. Of those six first-quarter wins, five have come by at least four points. That’s more than enough for The Big Dog to make it the final play of a very busy day.
Selection
Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 (1st Quarter Line) @ $1.87 (William Hill)
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