Dota 2 – Boston Major Main Event 2016

Dota2 action returns to America with the Boston Major. Unlike previous majors, we are presented with a different format of tournament and some solid lead in tournaments to figure out the form and play style for this meta from each team. The Group stages as always provided us with a load of information and while there weren’t surprises like in The International 2016, we did find a few teams that have been underestimated by the market.

When betting with Esports, I would always advise the person to remember that there are a lot more variables that come into play than a traditional sport… at this level of play, i’m very comfortable that there is no match fixing though and the form from past tournaments points the bets below to being solid investments. I would certainly note that 1 unit on Esports is significantly smaller for me than 1 unit on horse racing.

5 unit treble bet
$1.78 @ Crownbet
$1.79 @ Bet365

LGD-Gaming $1.30 H2H to defeat LGD.Forever
Digital Chaos $1.25 H2H to defeat Team Faceless
Virtus.Pro $1.10 H2H to defeat IG.Vitality

Reasoning
Very keen on this play coming into the first round of the Main Event. We have three of the top four teams taking on three of the bottom four teams from the group stages.
All three of our teams didn’t drop a game in the Group stages winning through 4-0. Two of the three teams we are against didn’t win a game in the Group stages, going 0-4.
The only team that did win games was iG Vitality who went 2-4 (losing both matches 1-2). iG Vitality scored those map wins against teams of questionable quality for mine and they come up against the tournament favourites in Virtus Pro who went 2-0 against the 3rd favourite Newbee in the group stages.

0.75 unit favourites bet
$11.19 @ Crownbet

Newbee H2H
Ehome H2H
OG H2H
Complexity Gaming H2H
The Wings Gaming H2H
LGD Gaming H2H
Digital Chaos H2H
Virtus.Pro H2H

Reasoning
Normally i’d be all over outsiders in tournaments coming into the main event, but with the new format being Best of 3 for every match, it makes it much more likely that the better teams will edge out their opponents. The new format also has put up some very one-sided matches with only one to two that could be close over three sets. At $11.19, i’m more than happy to have a play.

2.5 units bet – LGD Gaming to reach the final
$4.50 @ Bet365
$4.97 @ Pinnacle

Reasoning
The bottom half of the draw is the ‘easy’ way to the finals in this event with 3 of the 5 favourites getting put into the top half of the draw, including the $3 favourites Virtus.Pro.
This has left the bottom half of the draw wide open for LGD Gaming to go all the way to the final, with Newbee the ‘challenge’ along the way. Newbee were ‘Solid’ in the group stages in beating MVP Phoenix (the longest odds team in the tournament) and Team NP (they went 2-5 in the Group stage and are high double figure odds) both 2-0… but they were spanked by the tournament favourites Virtus.Pro 2-0 in two very short one-sided 24 and 25 minute games.

On the other hand, LGD topped their group by taking care of Team Faceless and Complexity Gaming (who finished 2nd in the group) in quick games 2-0. LGD has a great run to the finals taking on the other franchise team in LGD.Forever Young in the first round… a team that went 0-4 in qualifying.. they then face Newbee or Ad Finem in the next round before facing most likely Ehome or Digital Chaos (where they would be $1.30 favourites) to reach the final.

I fancy LGD from this draw to not only go all the way to the finals, but to win the whole tournament, but why would I take $9.50 about a team that is $4.50 to make the finals.. especially when they will be $3-$4 outsiders in the final if Virtus.Pro makes it to the final.

0.20 unit bet – Complexity to Win Outright
$67 @ Bet365/Crownbet

0.30 unit bet – Complexity to Reach The Final
$36 @ Bet365

Reasoning

Much shorter ($55) on Pinnacle which is the highest liquid ESports market in the world, Complexity are crazy odds to go all the way in this major. Finishing second in their group, Complexity Gaming beat Evil Geniuses twice 2-1, beat Team Faceless 2-0 and lost to LGD Gaming 0-2 to get the spot. Evil Geniuses are rated $9-$15 at most bookies as a comparison and have a much harder draw overall.

Complexity faces one of the outsiders of the tournament in WG. Unity in the first round before having to face OG or MVP Phoenix in the Quarter-finals.. a team they match up more than fine against based on play-styles. The Semi-Final is certainly the test with Virus.Pro (favourites) Wings Gaming (third favourites) and Evil Geniuses (sixth favourites) the opponents they could reach in the Semi Final. Complexity did defeat Virtus.Pro 2-1 at ESL One Frankfury 2016 in June and defeated Wings Gaming at The Manilla Major. On their day, Complexity has the ability to defeat any team, but they need to find consistency they haven’t shown in the past. At the odds, i’m happy to have a play.

Main Event Predictions

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

Leave a Reply