Welcome to The Profits coverage of Eurovision 2016. In previous years, Eurovision has had a relatively small following by Australian audiences however last year saw Guy Sebastian as the first Australian entry into the song contest and this attracted over 4.2M Australian viewers to SBS’s 2015 Eurovision coverage so I felt like it was important to cover it in depth this time around.
For those not familiar with Eurovision, here is a quick run down:
What is Eurovision?
Eurovision is the longest running annual international TV song competition. Countries from all over Europe (and in some cases outside of Europe) send an artist with an original song to compete for the title of Eurovision champion. World wide, the contest attracts an audience in the hundreds of millions!
When Is it?
Eurovision 2016 is hosted in Stockholm, Sweden. Below are the dates you need to know:
Eurovision Semi Final 1: Wednesday May 11th, 5am AEST on SBS
Who's performing: Finland, Greece, Moldova, Hungary, Croatia, The Netherlands, Armenia, San Marino, Russia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Austria, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Montenegro, Iceland, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Malta.
Eurovision Semi Final 2: Friday May 13th, 5am AEST on SBS
Who's performing: Latvia, Poland, Switzerland, Israel, Belarus, Serbia, Ireland, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Lithuania, Australia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Denmark, Ukraine, Norway, Georgia, Albania and Belgium.
Eurovision Grand Final: Sunday May 15th, 5am AEST on SBS
Who's performing: France; Germany; Italy; Spain; United Kingdom and host-country Sweden PLUS the top 20 countries from the two semi-finals.
How is the winner picked?
The winner is voted upon by two groups of people: one is a professional jury at the Eurovision song contest and the other is public televoting. Each group (the jury and the public) from each country award a set of 12, 10, 8–1 points to their 10 favourite songs. The winner is the country/artist with the most points.
The 2016 Twist
In previous years, each country's jury and public votes were combined and announced in one go. The downside of this style was that often before the voting announcements had even finished the winner was clear.
In 2016 the rules have changed slightly. The votes will now be split with each country's jury vote shown first on TV, then votes from the televoting public in all countries combined will be announced at the end. This doesn’t have a big impact on betting on Eurovision before the event, but it will have a huge impact on anyone betting inplay because the public votes announced at the end could cause a huge swing.
The Performers
1st Semifinal
|
# |
Country |
Song (Links to Youtube) |
Odds* |
| 1 |
Finland |
$1,000 |
|
| 2 |
Greece |
$1,000 |
|
| 3 |
Moldova |
$1,000 |
|
| 4 |
Hungary |
$320 |
|
| 5 |
Croatia |
$400 |
|
| 6 |
The Netherlands |
$50 |
|
| 7 |
Armenia |
$46 |
|
| 8 |
San Marino |
$1,000 |
|
| 9 |
Russia |
$2.70 |
|
| 10 |
Czech Republic |
$150 |
|
| 11 |
Cyprus |
$270 |
|
| 12 |
Austria |
$300 |
|
| 13 |
Estonia |
$1,000 |
|
| 14 |
Azerbaijan |
$480 |
|
| 15 |
Montenegro |
$1,000 |
|
| 16 |
Iceland |
$180 |
|
| 17 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina |
$1,000 |
|
| 18 |
Malta |
$24 |
Also voting in 1st semifinal: France, Spain & Sweden
*Odds quoted are based on Betfair prices as at 9am 09/05/16
2nd Semifinal
|
# |
Country |
Song (Links to Youtube) |
Odds* |
| 1 |
Latvia |
$140 |
|
| 2 |
Poland |
$250 |
|
| 3 |
Switzerland |
$1,000 |
|
| 4 |
Israel |
$65 |
|
| 5 |
Belarus |
$700 |
|
| 6 |
Serbia |
$55 |
|
| 7 |
Ireland |
$510 |
|
| 8 |
F.Y.R. Macedonia |
$1,000 |
|
| 9 |
Lithuania |
$750 |
|
| 10 |
Australia |
$18 |
|
| 11 |
Slovenia |
$1,000 |
|
| 12 |
Bulgaria |
$120 |
|
| 13 |
Denmark |
$800 |
|
| 14 |
Ukraine |
$5.00 |
|
| 15 |
Norway |
$270 |
|
| 16 |
Georgia |
$500 |
|
| 17 |
Albania |
$1,000 |
|
| 18 |
Belgium |
$120 |
Also voting in 2nd semifinal: Germany, Italy, United Kingdom
*Odds quoted are based on Betfair prices as at 9am 09/05/16
Grand Final
|
Country |
Song (Links to Youtube) |
Odds* |
|
France |
$9.60 |
|
|
Germany |
$800 |
|
|
Italy |
$44 |
|
|
Spain |
$160 |
|
|
Sweden |
$14.50 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
$65 |
|
|
PLUS the top 20 countries from the two semi-finals |
||
*Odds quoted are based on Betfair prices as at 9am 09/05/16
AGOE results
Collated from 40 clubs across the world. This is the Eurovision fan clubs around the world, so if you they pick someone you have to respect that – they'll be the ones televoting
1. France – 425 points
2. Russia – 392 points
3. Australia – 280 points
4. Bulgaria – 175 points
5. Italy – 170 points
6. Spain – 155 points
7. Austria – 128 points
8. Latvia – 110 points
9. Ukraine – 88 points
10. Hungary – 80 points
My Top 5
Honestly, I was underwhelmed by a lot of this year's Eurovison entries so it was easy to knock the list of 42 entrants down to a few genuine chances.
1. France ($9.60)
Full Eurovision Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boYQovCybYQ
Full Live Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRlty1XE6_w
Rehersal Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mzi7Qms9IE
In previous years, France has not performed well in Eurovision as their entrants often don’t fit in with the whole Eurovision vibe. This year, “J’ai cherché” looks a great chance and I have it on top.
Amir is a good looking 31 year old guy (which should appeal to the televoters) who finished third in France’s The Voice in 2014. The song “J’ai cherché” is modern, upbeat and catchy and is one of the best French entries I have heard for some time.
France were around the $4 mark at Betfair until rehearsals began a few days ago. The first rehearsal was underwhelming to most and this caused the price to blowout to $9+. After watching the second rehearsal, while it wasn’t flawless, I believe the price blowout was an overreaction and the current $9+ is now outstanding value.
It is also worth noting that the recent terror attacks in France and the way the country reacted to them should have boosted public opinion of France and this may snag them a few more votes from the televoters..
2. Russia ($2.70)
Full Eurovision Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHgxi57Um0w
Full Live Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK149fR9nnQ
Rehersal Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY8pBtSzExo
Russia appears to have noticed what won Eurovision last year – a good looking singer, strong lyrics and good visuals. As shown by the rehearsal, they are on the right track bringing all this and some stunning next level visuals.
For those that don’t know – Sergey Lazarev is a star in Russia. In 2000, Sergey was part of a boy band called “Smash!” who were popular throughout Russia until 2004 (when Smash! separated). In 2002, the the video for “Belle” topped MTV Russia's chart for 6 months and is one of their top 20 clips of the past five years.
“You Are The Only One” is a cliche Eurovision song – catchy, has a good beat and sticks in your head – but take away the visuals or Sergey’s popularity and focusing on the song alone – I do not rate it a winner. With lyrics like “Thunder and lightning, it’s getting exciting” it also hardly breaks any barriers or delivers a message either.
You would also have to imagine the political issues surrounding Russia recently may affect televoting results too. In 2015, Russia had a great song however received low votes from some countries due to political tension – this may appear again.
3. Australia ($18)
Full Eurovision Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EG_Jtw4OyU
Full Live Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKVTJNadPds
Rehearsal Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs4BMjjZvAI
Dami Im represents Australia with a strong contender for a top 3-5 finish.
After winning X Factor in 2013, Dami has had a steady stream of relative success with “Super Love” and “Gladiator” both peaking at 11 on the ARIA charts so her selection to represent Australia at Eurovision is deserved.
“Sound Of Silence” is an emotional ballad that Dami was born to deliver. Dami sings with power and emotion in what should be a spine tingling live performance. After listening to this song a few times, I get the feel of “Sia” (Chandelier, Elastic Heart etc) about it which can only be a good thing. Dami is also no stranger to performing in front of large crowds, recently performing at a concert in China that was viewed by over 200 million people nationally – so we shouldn’t see any stage fright at Eurovision!
Politically, Australia is friendly to most countries which is a positive as Dami may receive a few extra votes from televoters bumping her up the rankings.
4. Spain ($160)
Full Eurovision Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0I37W3RN_U
Full Live Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79ZJgHuOjJ4
Rehearsal Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uuovg_Oy5tA
Before Eurovision even begins, this song has caused a large amount of discussion amongst Eurovision fans. The song was “revamped” to include louder drums, clearer backing vocals and more “funk” elements. Some hate the revamp, some love it.
Barei performs the energetic anthem “Say Yay!” with confidence and infectious enthusiasm. You can’t help but smile as you watch this performance and it’s clear Barei loves what she does. I can see Barei really appealing to the younger demographic of Eurovision.
Spain are automatically in the final so they are always a chance. The song is fun, upbeat and will have Europe on their feet dancing. Based on rehearsals, there are some improvements that could help Spain finish higher on the night but from what I have seen, they are overs based on their current odds.
5. Malta ($24)
Full Live Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDo99d8MDKg
Full Eurovision Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J7O5BGqPDk
Rehearsal Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o_lSMrLADk
“Walk On Water” is probably one of Malta’s best entries for some time. Malta were actually due to perform a song called “Chameleon” at Eurovision however in March this was changed which I think was the correct decision as “Walk On Water” is a much better fitting song.
Ira Losco has performed at Eurovision previously, finishing 2nd in 2002 with the song “7th Wonder” (12 points behind the winner) and returns with a solid entry. Malta is taking a risk with this entry by moving away from the usual style that wins Eurovision and moving towards a more drum and bass style – half pop half dance song – but it could just pay off.
Whilst I don’t think this entry will win, it has the potential to poll well if Ira can deliver vocally on the night.
Overall Top 10
1. France
2. Russia
3. Australia
4. Spain
5. Malta
6. Hungary
7. Ukraine
8. Bulgaria
9. Italy
10. Sweden
Suggested Bets
Best Bet: France To Win @ $9.60 (Betfair)
Saver: Russia To Win @ $2.70 (Betfair)
and/or
Saver: Russia To Win @ $2.50 at Sportsbet (Money back up to $50 if finishes 2nd or 3rd)
Other Bets
Next Best: Australia Top 5 @ $2.04 (Betfair)
Value Bet: Spain Top 10 @ $5.50 (Betfair)
