Welcome to The Profits Round 9 2017 NRL kicks off on Thursday night from Suncorp Stadium Broncos hosting the Panthers and The Profits NRL expert Scooby previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Brisbane Broncos (5th) v Penrith Panthers (14th)
The Broncos return hope after a win against the Rabbitohs in less than convincing fashion. If the two teams were rewarded based on their performance, the Broncos may have left Sydney empty handed. They were on the right end of a few controversial calls but will take it for what it is worth. Anyone associated with this game will know that it will soon even out. As for their execution within the game, the defence of the Broncos looked to be lacking intensity compared to recent weeks; after facing some difficult opponents in the opening stages of the season, perhaps they dipped a little against a less fancied opponent. They can not afford to do the same here though, as the Panthers will be out to claim just their third win of the season and snap a 4-game losing streak. They came up short against the Eels last Saturday, beaten by 6-points in a game they never appeared to be able to win. Their lack of execution in possession correlates with no direction currently, forcing the players to create rather than build on momentum. This is a dangerous game plan and it has not worked as yet for this young team that was once touted as Premiership favorites. It is no surprise that their poor form also coincides with lack of execution; they have the highest errors of any team (12 per game), the 4th highest missed tackles (33.2 per game) and are at the lower end of average metres made (8.9m per carry). The Broncos will pose another challenge altogether on top of this and the Panthers, knowing the importance of this game, have chosen to go into camp 4 days prior to this clash. The rivalry between the two coaches is also a focus, as it was Griffin who coached at the Broncos after Bennett. The record is heavily weighed towards Griffin, who has won 8 out the 10 meetings between the two coaches, with 1 draw also.
Broncos = Jordan Kahu (injury) returns on the wing, pushing David Mead back to the bench.
Panthers = Unchanged.
Overall = Broncos 19 Draw 1 Panthers 12
Last 5 matches = Broncos 1 Panthers 4
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 61% Panthers 36%
Form = Broncos 3 wins – Panthers 4 losses
The Panthers are almost at a “must win” stage in their season and if the odds are anything to go by, they are going to have a difficult time against the Broncos. That being said, the Panthers have a great recent record over the Broncos, winning 4 out of the past 5 meetings, with one of those wins being at this ground; 2 of those wins have been by 1-point, with the other 2 being by 16-points and 19-points. Throw in the winning record of Griffin over Bennett and there is a case for the Panthers to win this game. Nevertheless, their current run of form is questionable to say the least. They had countless opportunities against the Eels and were unable to make the most of it. The Broncos are a better team than the Eels and will make the Panthers pay for their mistakes. In saying that, there were signs last week that the Broncos were a tired team and just scraping home against the Rabbitohs is evidence of that, as well as how much they missed Ben Hunt. Since he has been injured, they have won their two games by 2 and 1 point respectively. Put simply, greater responsibility is falling on Milford’s shoulders and teams are targeting him in any way possible. With this is mind, as well as the strong recent record the Panthers have, it is difficult to go past them with the start. It appears that close games have become a trend also, leaning one to think that the Panthers have plenty to give with a week off next weekend.
Panthers +7.5 @ $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs (11th) v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (8th)
These two teams met one another back in Round 2 at Lottoland where the Rabbitohs beat the Sea Eagles by 20-points. Signs were positive early for the home team but after scoring the opening 3 tries, they managed just one more for the match. Since that match, the two teams have been on dramatically different paths and face off here with the Sea Eagles arguably the stronger team. It was a tough week for the Rabbitohs; losing a match courtesy of human error, they find themselves out of the Top 8 rather than on the cusp. It is never good to lose a match, although they will take some confidence away from their improved effort with several stars missing from their team. The challenge ahead of them is maintaining this effort and limiting penalties at crucial points of the match. The Sea Eagles head into this game with winning form, after defeating the Raiders on the road in Golden Point. It was always going to be a tough task for the visitors, yet they were up for the task in a thrilling contest. The Sea Eagles built their victory around a 55% possession statistic that was complimented by their amazingly high 92% completion rate. Committing just 3 errors over 80 minutes of rugby league demonstrated how measured they can be in their play and offer plenty of positives moving forward. They will be out to make amends for their Round 2 effort and it appears that playing on the road is where they do their best work; 3 out of their 4 victories have come in this fashion.
Rabbitohs = Adam Reynolds (injury) is named to return at halfback, allowing John Sutton to move back to the second row to cover for George Burgess (suspended).
Sea Eagles = Unchanged.
Overall = Rabbitohs 14 Sea Eagles 19
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 3 Sea Eagles 2
At Allianz Stadium = Rabbitohs 32% Sea Eagles 57%
Form = Rabbitohs 2 losses – Sea Eagles 1 win
With the two sides taking remarkably different paths since Round 2, it is no surprise to see the Sea Eagles as favorites for this game. The return of Reynolds for the Rabbitohs adds plenty of confidence; with his kicking game being one of the best in the competition. This created headaches for the Sea Eagles in their last meeting as the Rabbitohs kicked the ball for 219m more. The visitors will be ready for the Rabbitohs forward game this time and they made a positive statement with their performance over the Raiders, a pack that is big and difficult to stop. It appears as though the Rabbitohs may have a more difficult time against the Sea Eagles, a team that has performed well on the road this season; 3 of their 4 wins have come at away venues and the last time they met at this ground, it was an 8-point win for the visitors. The average winning margin in the past 5 matches is 12.8 points, with two blowout victories of 20-points to each team. Aside from that, on the other three occasions matches have been decided by less than 2 converted tries. Both teams will be out to play measured football; this kept the Rabbitohs in their match last week, with poor penalties letting them down when it mattered. The Sea Eagles have named a far stronger team this time around and have what it takes to even the matchup for the season, albeit by a smaller margin than most could be expecting.
Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.75
Man of the moment = Dylan Walker FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – He was crucial to their win last week and can’t keep himself away from anything remotely exciting. Expect another big match from Walker against his former team, who already has 3 tries for the season, one of which came last week.
North Queensland Cowboys (6th) v Parramatta Eels (10th)
It was a win, as expected, for the Cowboys at home last week against the Knights; nevertheless there was plenty of doubt around their winning potential with so many class players missing from their team. It has required others to stand up in their absence and their two performances as a team thus far have been pleasing to say the least. They found themselves playing from behind after 22 minutes, down 12-6 and went in down 12-10 at HT. Not to panic, they kept their opponents scoreless in the second half; their defence was back to its best, missing just 14 tackles over 80 minutes, while also completing at 81%. They still have improvements to make, as they average the third highest errors in the game (11.8 per game). Furthermore, they were able to win at home, a place where that is usually strong but they have lost 2 matches here already this season. The Eels also head into this game as winners and their 4-game losing streak now appears to be a distant memory. They came out and were measured in their play against the Panthers in a dour affair, eventually prevailing by 6-points. A 66% completion rate highlights one area they need to dramatically improve upon, severely hampered by 15 errors that they made. Their defence was the difference in this game, having the ability to miss just 22 tackles and limit the Panthers scoring will be pleasing for this squad. A late try with 3 minutes remaining in the contest narrowed the margin and gave the visitors a chance of leveling the scores, yet the Eels always appeared to be in control of the result.
Cowboys = Unchanged, although Johnathan Thurston is named in the reserves.
Eels = Kenny Edwards is named at five-eight for Brad Takairangi (injured), with David Gower coming onto the bench.
Overall = Cowboys 16 Draw 1 Eels 16
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 3 Eels 2
At 1300Smiles Stadium = Cowboys 82% Eels 17%
Form = Cowboys 1 win – Eels 2 wins
Confidence has been restored for the Eels recently, although this match is another level altogether. Winning against the Tigers and Panthers is hardly anything to be excited about, but it is winning form nonetheless. The Eels have beaten just one Top 8 team this year, an underprepared Dragons team in Round 2. The loss of Norman has hurt them, yet his return has coincided with their improved form; it has taken him a few games to find his feet again. The Cowboys will head into this game as favorites on the back of their most recent efforts, as well as the horror record that the Eels have at this ground. These factors are positives even before the possible inclusion of Thurston; he is the ultimate competitor and will want to do what is best for his team, although being named in the Kangaroos squad is sure to influence his decision somewhat. With or without Thurston, the Cowboys should be too strong. When it comes to winning against them in Townsville, it is ugly viewing for the visitors; in their past 5 trips to this ground, the Cowboys have won by an average of 27.2 points, with the lowest margin of victory at 14-points. The problems are only compounded for the Eels as the Cowboys are ranked 4th in the league for line breaks, averaging 4.3 per game, and averaging 9.4m per carry of the ball. This is well ahead of the Eels 8.8m per carry and 3.5 line breaks per game. With all their power though, the Cowboys have won just the solitary match this season by more than 12-points (14 v Rabbitohs in Round 5 at home) and they are desperate to improve their point’s difference. The Eels defence has improved remarkably this season and it will have to be at its best for this game; without knowing if JT will play or not, the safest option appears to be taking the home team to cover the line.
Cowboys -5.5 @ $1.90
Gold Coast Titans (15th) v Newcastle Knights (16th)
The Titans caused an upset last week on the road against the Sharks, although it may have not been as surprising considering the players that were returning to their team. It has been a poor start to the season for the Titans injury-wise, with their effort in matches unable to be matched by the quality within their team. This is an area that should improve and they took a major step forward against the Sharks; they managed to limit their missed tackles (27 for the match) compared to their season average of 36.1 (highest in the league). They will sense a genuine opportunity to make it consecutive victories and make amends for the 8-point loss to the Knights back in Round 2. That has been the Knights only win for the season, although like the Titans, their effort in matches has been impressive. The major question lingering is whether or not they can maintain this despite their 6-game losing streak with a distinct lack of quality within their team. Last week, they headed up to Townsville and forced the Cowboys to produce some impressive individual plays to score points. Unfortunately, their great start to the match wasn’t maintained, as the Knights went scoreless from the 22nd minute onwards. Compounding issues is the fact that the try scored by Brendan Elliot at this point was against the run of play, suggesting that the Knights need to get better at capitalizing in the attacking zone. Coach Nathan Brown made the massive call of leaving out incumbent halfback Trent Hodkinson due to a poor run of form. His experience within the team was needed but Brown made a statement in the direction that he wishes to take this club. No doubt that the Knights will take confidence from their previous meeting between the two teams.
Titans = Tyronne Roberts-Davis is named on the wing, with Dan Sarginson pushing into the centres for Dale Copley (injured). Kane Elgey and Pat Vaivai are named on the bench to cover for Chris Grevsmuhl (injured) and Karl Lawton (injured).
Knights = Jaelen Feeney is named at halfback, with Sione Mata’utia moving back to the second row. Luke Yates comes into the team at lock for Mitchell Barnett (injured), with Joe Wardle filling the vacant bench spot.
Overall = Titans 7 Knights 10
Last 5 matches = Titans 2 Knights 3
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 49% Knights 67%
Form = Titans 1 win – Knights 6 losses
Betting markets list the Titans as overwhelming favorites to make amends for their loss earlier in the season to the Knights. This is largely due to their performance last week and an expected increase in this area now that injured players are getting “match fit”; majority of these players were present in Round 2, although confidence has evidently improved also. The Knights have a surprisingly good record at this ground, winning 4 out of the 6 matches played here; the trip north will have no reservations for them, although it will be tough following consecutive matches on the road in Queensland. Much like each game they have played this season, effort will be high but they will be lacking class compared with their opponent. This is the first time that they have met a team in a similar predicament, yet the Titans have differed recently with quality players returning to their side. This is set to put them in a winning position, as they will also aim to reduce the missed tackles across the match, thus reducing their opponents attacking ability. One area the Titans haven’t struggled in is scoring points; they have an average of 21.5 points per game (3rd highest in the league) and average 3.9 tries (3rd highest in the league). What isn’t great is that they also have conceded the highest amount of points in the competition (27.2 per game) but are working to rectify this area; considering the Knights concede an average of 25.6 points per game, it may not be as bad. With a more relaxed defensive line in front of them, the Titans may look to pile on the points and get home comfortably in this game.
Titans -13.5 @ $1.80
Releasing the shackles = Titans 19+ @ $2.45 – Consecutive road matches will increase the fatigue within the Knights, which will not help them in defence. They have only lost 2 games this season by more than 13 points, but one against the Panthers was by 40. There are similarities in the attacking styles of them and the Titans, so expect trouble in defence yet again.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (9th) v Canberra Raiders (7th)
It has been an interesting few weeks on and off the field for the Bulldogs, with contract negotiations at the forefront of the headlines. Thankfully, it has taken away from their loss on the weekend; a game they were strong favorites yet were unable to deliver consistently. Even with Matt Frawley coming off the bench, the Bulldogs play failed to improve and they eventually went down to the Tigers by 6-points. There wasn’t a major indicator for their poor performance; they did make 11 errors by only missed 24 tackles and completed at 81%. They were simply ineffective when it mattered; summed up when Greg Eastwood put a grubber-kick through on the 3rd tackle with the game on the line. It is a trend that was evident in their previous weeks win over the Rabbitohs, overshadowed by the way they finished the match. The Raiders will also be out to bounce back from a loss, as they went down to Manly at home. As the game went to Golden Point, a critical mistake and a penalty handed the game to their opponents. A lack of possession didn’t help their cause, especially considering that their opponents completed at 92% in the match. These two sides are level with wins for the season but such is the dangerous attack that the Raiders possess, they have a +57 points difference, compared with the Bulldogs -12; ultimately, this could be the deciding factor in the match. Thankfully for the Raiders, the stability they possess compared to the Bulldogs could also be a major advantage.
Bulldogs = Unchanged.
Raiders = Clay Priest (injury) is named on the bench, pushing Dunamis Lui back to the bench.
Overall = Bulldogs 17 Raiders 15
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 3 Raiders 2
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 58% Raiders 60%
Form = Bulldogs 1 loss – Raiders 1 loss
It was an underwhelming effort from the Bulldogs that reflected their early season form, throw in some more player movements and the uncertainty within this team is bound to affect some players. That being said, they have been able to deal with this over the past few weeks, although the Raiders will be egger to bounce back from last week’s loss. They will aim to take the game to the Bulldogs in the forwards, an area that was poor for them last week. The Raiders will head into this match as favorites and should have what it takes to deliver a win; the fact that they were drawn into a verbal slanging match with an opponent that distracted them from winning will definitely hurt them. If you were planning an upcoming match against them, this would be one area to target. It has been a while since these two teams have faced off at this ground, with the Bulldogs successful back in 2011. The Raiders past 3 wins against the Bulldogs have all been by more than 12 points, at an average margin of 18 points. It would be surprising to see the Raiders margin of victory stretched to this, as the Bulldogs average the least amount of missed tackles of any team (22 per game); nevertheless, the Raiders have the attacking power to break the game open, averaging 25 PPG in attack compared with the Bulldogs 15.3 PPG. This low level of points scoring highlights the lack of direction they experience in attack and it could be a problem here if they are chasing points. Under Hasler, the Bulldogs have an uncanny ability to play to the level of their opponents. Don’t be surprised if they are able to keep pace with the Raiders for a fair portion of this match. This aside, the Raiders appear to be too good to go past here, yet will be made to work for their victory.
Raiders 1-12 @ $2.80
Wests Tigers (13th) v Cronulla Sharks (4th)
A win last Sunday for the Tigers went a long way to improving moral at their club, although rumor and innuendo regarding potential player signings and departures didn’t stay away for long. Focusing on their match, a spirited Tigers outfit scored a 6-point win over the Bulldogs, when it appeared as though their opponents would prevail towards the end of the contest. It was a pleasing effort, although they still have their issues. They only scored two tries and struggled to score points in the second half; the return of Brooks failed to add direction to their attack and it showed. Returning to their spiritual home ground of Leichhardt Oval is sure to bring out the passion in their fans. The Sharks will be up for the challenge of winning at this ground, as they endeavor to bounce back from an upset loss to the Titans; worse still, they were unsuccessful on home turf. Things were going along smoothly for them prior, they were on a 4-game winning streak where they demonstrated some impressive play. Suggestions around their mental and physical fatigue at its breaking point appear justified; with a loss by the defending Premiers destined to refocus them for this contest. It was an uncharacteristic effort that had them missing 38 tackles, increasing their season average to 34.1 per game and now they are ranked 3rd on the unwanted listed. Thankfully, the Tigers sit slightly above them, although what lies ahead is a tricky game that could change their preparation with a week off to follow.
Tigers = Unchanged.
Sharks = Gerard Beale (injury) returns to the wing, pushing Kurt Capewell back to the bench. Luke Lewis (injury) returns to the second row for Jayson Bukuya (injured).
Overall = Tigers 17 Draw 1 Sharks 9
Last 5 matches = Tigers 2 Sharks 3
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 58% Sharks 29%
Form = Tigers 1 win – Sharks 1 loss
To say the Tigers have been inconsistent in recent weeks is a massive understatement. The win over the Bulldogs will give them plenty of confidence, although the Sharks are a superior to what they have previously faced. The Tigers will be hoping that the Sharks poor record and a return to their spiritual home ground will lift them over the line, yet if their frosty reception last match is anything to go by, the fans may not be as supportive as they were hoping. The Sharks are deserved favorites for this game and it will take a special effort from the Tigers to alter the intended outcome. It appears as though the power within their forwards will be far less than what the Sharks are going to offer, with the visitors out to make amends for their performance last week. They were lucky to score the last try against the Bulldogs and had more consistent pressure been applied to them, they may have found themselves unable to deliver. The Tigers are going to have to find a new dimesion to their attack if they are to score points, the Sharks average just 12.8 per game compared with the Tigers leaking 25.5 PPG. With the Tigers being able to score an average of 16 PPG and the Sharks 20PPG, the overall margin of victory may well be a comfortable one to the visitors. The Tigers can only hope that their opponents are mentally and physical drained after a difficult start to the season; it is no secret that each team lifts when they are facing the reigning Premiers. Then again, the Tigers may need more help than this to get them through.
Sharks -6.5 @ $.185
Averages add up = Sharks 13+ @ $2.80 – The Sharks were a tired team last week and when they were pressured, they were unable to deliver. With a week off to regroup ahead, you can expect them to put plenty into winning this game, not to mention the Tigers struggles to limit opponents points so far in 2017.
Rippin’ Ricky = Ricky Leutele FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Leutele’s effort has not gone unnoticed this season; he is equal top of the tries for the Sharks (3 for the year) and line break (6 for the year), making him a threat when in attack. Amazingly, the player he is equal with is Wade Graham ($21), so he too is worth some thought as a “roughy”.
New Zealand Warriors (12th) v Sydney Roosters (3rd)
The Warriors head home this week after a narrow loss to the Storm on ANZAC Day in Melbourne. It was a game that they again progressed as a team, but were unable to put the finishing touches on their performance. The improvement within their team is uncharacteristic; they completed at 86% and made just 5 errors. Their defence was strong on their line and they controlled several Storm attacking raids, although they will be disappointed missing 39 tackles. That being said, the Warriors are building towards consistency, which is just in time for the stage of the season that they generally move up the ladder. The Roosters walked away from their ANZAC Day clash with a 1-point victory over the Dragons. Despite all of the pressure and doubt around him, Mitchell Pearce produced the winning FG in thrilling circumstances. That makes in back-to-back wins for the Roosters, although they still have plenty of areas to improve upon. Even as their opponents were wounded, the Roosters failed several times to capitalize on pressure that they were building on their opponents line. Committing 12 errors didn’t assist their cause, nor the 40 missed tackles. This is becoming and issues for the Roosters, who miss an average of 33.3 tackles per game, the 6th most of any team in the competition. That effort was a draining one for them and with a short turnaround into Sunday, they will need the confidence from that win to get them over the line again here. No doubt the Warriors big men will be aiming to apply the pressure back to their opponents.
Warriors = Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (NRL debut) is named to start on the wing, as David Fusitua moves to the centres for Solomone Kata (injured).
Roosters = Mitchell Aubusson (injured) returns to the back row, with Sio Siua Taukeiaho dropping back to the bench and Kane Evans back to the reserves. Dylan Napa is named to start at prop, pushing Isaac Liu back to the bench.
Overall = Warriors 19 Draw 1 Roosters 15
Last 5 matches = Warriors 2 Roosters 3
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 58% Roosters 38%
Form = Warriors 2 losses – Roosters 2 wins
The Roosters head across to NZ as favorites, with a win last week adding confidence to what this team can achieve. It may not be as straightforward as it appears though, with the Roosters poor record at Mt Smart Stadium being only the start of the issues that they may face. Their standing on the table doesn’t demonstrate it, yet the Warriors are playing positive football, compared to years in the past that is measured and controlled. The Roosters sit 3rd on the ladder for good reason but better teams have been able to make them pay for their mistakes. Amazingly, the Roosters average more missed tackles (32.3 per game) and commit more errors (11.8 per game) than the Warriors (26.8 missed tackles and 10.5 errors). This is bound to work in their favor soon enough and given the way they played against the competition leaders last week, the Warriors look set to cause an upset here. They were successful in both games over the Roosters last year and all 3 of their wins this year have been at home, by an average of 7.3 points. Both their wins against the Roosters last year were close, by 2 and 4 points respectively. This game looks headed for the same fate, as the Roosters will struggle to bounce back from a draining performance last week. The Warriors also have a difficult challenge of recovering, although the Roosters have failed to do this at several stages during this season. Make sure you are watching this game as the finish promises to be a very exciting conclusion heading into a week off for most players in this team.
Warrior 1-12 @ $3
Attacking Weapon = David Fusitua FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – Fusitua is the Warriors leading try scorer with 6 for the season, 2 behind the competition leaders. Moving into centre will only increase his chances as he is closer to the ball against a team that was vulnerable, on more than one occasion last week, on the edges.
St George-Illawarra Dragons (2nd) v Melbourne Storm (1st)
The Dragons suffered a narrow loss last week to the Roosters on ANZAC Day, sunken by a FG in Golden Point. They didn’t have things their own way over 80 minutes either, with an injury to Gareth Widdop halting majority of their momentum. This meant that other players were to lift and they did, although they were still missing their captain when it mattered. Going into HT 6-nil ahead, things were looking positive but they were unable to halt the Roosters attacking pressure. The character that the Dragons displayed to score a try with 2 minutes remaining is a testament to this team and an indication that at full-strength, this team belongs in the Top 8. That loss knocked them off the top of the competition ladder, replaced by the Storm, after they were successful over the Warriors just 2 hours later. Their game didn’t go to plan early; the Warriors were brining plenty of pressure to the Storms defensive line through measured ball movement. Despite this, the Storm were able to control their own game and the speed at which they played was impressive. On top of this, their forwards carried the ball strongly to the Warriors line and ensured second phase play with 15 offloads, yet still completed at 88% for the match. Eventually, a 77th minute try to the Storm sealed a 6-point victory as their defence continued to hold strong; in the end they only missed 17 tackles for the match. As the representative season approaches, the Storm will be impacted upon heavily; nevertheless, the standard which they have set is going to ensure that they remain in the top half of the competition for some time yet.
Dragons = Kurt Mann is named at 5/8 for Gareth Widdop (injured), with Taane Milne filling the vacant bench spot.
Storm = Kenny Bromwich (injury) returns to the second row, pushing Joe Stimson back to the reserves.
Overall = Dragons 9 Draw 1 Storm 23
Last 5 matches = Dragons 2 Storm 3
At WIN Stadium = Dragons 62% Storm 40%
Form = Dragons 1 loss – Storm 2 wins
WIN Stadium has been somewhat of a fortress for the Dragons, a tough ground to travel down to and win for any team; yet they were defeated here already this season by the Eels back in Round 2. It is a shame that the home team is not at full-strength, as it has hampered how competitive they will be. The usual power from the Dragons forwards that has been displayed in 2017 will be present, although they will have a difficult time attempting to break down the Storm. Having Widdop in their side gave them plenty of options at the line and without him, they will lack direction, as seen in the back half of their match against the Roosters. This is where the Storm do their best work; they know how to break down their opponents strengths and lead themselves to victory. Betting markets are mirroring this opinion, with the Storm heading into this game as favorites, despite struggling at this ground in the past. They are too good to overlook for this game and will be able to combat their spirited opponents; the Dragons are expected to lift without their captain on the field. As for the margin, the Storm have won 2 out of their 7 games this season by more than 13 points, with the other 5 being narrow victories. These two teams have a history of closer games too; of their past 5 matches, the average winning margin is 10 points, with one victory over 12 points; while the Storms average winning margin over the Dragons is slightly better at 10.4 points. Considering they have lost their past 3 matches at this ground to the Dragons, selecting a narrow margin of victory, regardless of who is leading their attack, is the right way to go.
Storm -6.5 @ $1.90
Narrow it down = Storm 1-12 @ $2.80 – As mentioned above, these two teams fail to rarely pile points on their opponent. The Storm have been successful at this in the past, although those victories have come at home. Their record at this ground isn’t great and with that in mind, as well as fatigue from the week before, it may take them longer than expected to put the Dragons away.