The last seven days of rugby has included some breathtaking moments (ITM Cup), some putrid and ill-disciplined play (ARG v SA) and some unfathomable results (Currie Cup/Top 14). New Zealand rugby continues to thrive at both a local and international level, after the All Blacks yet again comprehensively outclassed the Wallabies, and the ITM continued to showcase the depth and genuine homegrown talent of the nation. The Springboks travelled to Argentina on the back of a record breaking victory in Johannesburg and they were put to the test and relied heavily on the boot of Morne Steyn to get them out of trouble. It was a match marred by controversy and the negative and dirty tactics of the Pumas were once again on show. With The Rugby Championship taking a break this weekend, it is back to provincial rugby, so here’s hoping to get back into the winner’s circle. As always, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.

Best Bet 1: Auckland -9.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Toulon -4.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

*Additional plays may be posted later

ITM Cup – Auckland ($1.27) versus Bay of Plenty ($3.63)

The ITM Cup is New Zealand’s premier domestic rugby competition and in my opinion, the best advertisement for rugby. Although it has had several name changes over the years, the competition began in 1976 as the NPC. The competition is split into two divisions: The Premiership and The Championship. Similarly to Super Rugby, there are inter-divisional matchups and cross-divisional matchups, and given the wealth of talent that exists in New Zealand, the standard and quality of rugby is of the highest calibre. New Zealander’s have always had the ability to beat a defender one-on-one and for that reason, coupled with some weakened defences due to the quick turnarounds between matches, the total tries and total points are markets that I pay a lot of attention too. Canterbury are the reigning ITM Cup champions and this isn’t surprising given their depth and their larger contingent of All Blacks that generally return towards the latter stages of the tournament.

Auckland

Auckland has had an unconvincing start to the season, despite currently holding a 2-0 record. They are a team that possesses a number of players with Super Rugby experience and due to the bye week in The Rugby Championship, stalwart Kevin Mealamu and the livewire Charles Piutau take their places in today’s fixture. A sign of a good team is when you can grind out wins, either when your players are having an off day or when the refereeing decisions aren’t going your way. In today’s match, a lot rests on the young shoulders of former New Zealand schoolboy’s fly half Simon Hickey, as he will look to ignite the potent backline outside of him. As we all know, a rugby match is one up front and with the likes of Mealamu, Luke Braid and Pete Saili, they certainly have the firepower to do so. All Black exile Piri Weepu will also need a big game if he has any intentions of featuring for the All Blacks for the remainder of the season.

Bay of Plenty

The Steamers snuck home last week in the battle of the Bays, when they adopted an attacking mindset and turned down a number of kickable penalties to overpower Hawke’s Bay in Mount Maunganui. Fly half Willie Ripia had a man of the match performance and more will be needed from him as he continues to rebuild his reputation after a short stay with the Western Force due to disciplinary reasons. Promising flanker Sam Cane will be welcomed back from the All Blacks camp to fill the blindside role, where he will partner up with Reds flanker Beau Robinson in an attempt to control the breakdowns. Kimami Sitauti, Tino Nemani and Dave Thomas have a good balance of size and pace at the back and they’ll need to have big games to counteract what the higher jersey numbers of Auckland will throw at them.

Prediction:

Auckland have been a hard team to gauge this year as they ooze class and experience, but they have fallen short on the handicap twice, once with a poor first half performance and once with a lackluster second period. In saying that, with the return of Kevin Mealamu and Charles Piutau, they are a lot more balanced and I expect them to take this match quite comfortably on a hard Eden Park deck.

Predicted result: Auckland to win @ $1.27 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Auckland -9.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet

French Top 14  – Grenoble ($2.63) versus Toulon ($1.44)

The Top 14 is France’s premier domestic rugby competition that has over 121 years of history. Hence the name, the fourteen best rugby teams in France compete for this prestigious trophy every year. The Top 14 has arguably some of the best rugby players in the world given their large budgets, which attract a number of international players, predominantly towards the end of their sporting careers. Approximately 40% (250 players) of the Top 14 are foreign rugby players and in doing so, they generally forfeit the ability to play for their national side. As you would expect, matches are slightly more intense and are played with a lot more width than what you see in the UK, although the weather often plays a key part in determining the entertainment value of a fixture.

Grenoble welcomes the reigning Heineken Cup champions and tournament leaders Toulon to Stade des Alpes on Saturday evening. Some may remember last year’s shock result where the home team pipped Toulon 25-24 in one of the upsets of the season when they scored a try on the siren and it was graciously converted by Jonathan Pelissé, so it would be fair to say that Toulon will not be taking this fixture lightly.

Grenoble

Grenoble suffered a resounding defeat in round two to last year’s champions Castres after a solid first round victory over Stade Francais. They are an inconsistent team that doesn’t necessarily possess the superstars that some of the more financially astute teams can manage, however, they play with pride and passion and are a relatively settled unit. They will need to play for the entire 80 minutes this week and be relentless at the breakdown if they are to slow this classy Toulon outfit down.

Toulon

Sitting at the top of the league and the European title in their trophy cabinet, things have been going very well for Toulon over the past twelve months. After a disappointing draw to Montpellier in week one, Toulon kicked into gear last week and romped to a 41 – 14 victory over Racing Metro, thanks to an impressive four-try second half performance. Once again, the forwards set the platform and the men in the higher jerseys took over. Toulon’s backline is world class and with Jonny Wilkinson orchestrating his team around the paddock with his trusty left and right boots and deft passing, players like David Smith, Matt Giteau and Rudi Wulf are never far from the action. Bryan Habana will play his first game in Toulon colours when he comes off the bench. He has flown in from Argentina midweek and will also depart directly after the match to join up with the Springboks in Brisbane, but there will be a lot of pressure on one of Toulon’s new high-profile signings.

Prediction:
It will be a David versus Goliath affair at the foot of the French Alps this weekend, but these are the games that Toulon need to bank if they want to go one better in this year’s competition and I truly believe they have picked the right combinations to do it.

Predicted result: Toulon to win @ $1.44– Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Toulon -4.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet