Two back to back plays in the first two matches of the day at Rennes stand out for me today. The attention may be on Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, but the value currently lies in France.
Here is the first play starting soon!
Norbert Gombos vs Antoine Hoang
Bit of value to kick off the night considering the severe overreaction of bookmakers to a victory last night. Gombos got the job done very easily for our 5 unit Fatigue Fader play last night, however looking at the stats, point by point and reaction from the match, then it is safe to say that De Schepper was a massive no-show just as we hoped. De Schepper won only 59% of points on first serve, 56% of points on second serve, was 0/4 on break point saves and only won 13 points on return through 8 Gombos service games. Gombos was given an absolute gift, which he took, but I think the bookmakers have looked at him beating an in-form Challenger player and overestimated this by quite a way.
Antoine Hoang is playing in one of his home Challenger events after flying his way through qualifying and a first round match with Arthur De Greef in 3 sets, 7-6 3-6 6-3. Hoang played some really solid tennis this week across his 4 victories, highlighted by his absolute demolition job of Marco Trungelliti 6-3 6-1 in the 2nd round of Qualifying. He is serving well, and has also been quite attacking on the return of serve, which he needs to do as he is 6 feet tall.
Overall Gombos has been quite patchy on hard court. Outside of the Orleans Challenger title last year, he has been very hit and miss on the indoor hardcourt. And when his opponent is playing at home, on a surface he has had some pretty decent success on at ITF level, then I am happy to make a play here for Hoang to upset Gombos. With wins or close losses against the likes of De Minaur and Moraing, Hoang is right in this. Unless Gombos serves 73% of first serves in like he did against De Schepper, then Hoang is right in this as a BIG underdog at home.
Oh, and just to make sure I was on the right track here, I had a quick chat to Dan Weston (catch him on twitter it is well worth it -> @tennisratings) who delivers some exceptional ratings spreadsheets on tennis, and he agrees too the Hoang is value, rating him a $2.79 chance here.
3 units Hoang to defeat Gombos at $3.47 at Pinnacle
Vasek Pospisil vs Mats Moraing
Doubling down a little bit on the Fatigue Fader that just missed the mark last night, as Moraing came back from a set down to defeat Hemery in a weird, yet close 3 set match. And when I sit here watching Cilic on his way to the Australian Open Final, I am starting to think that taking Marin Cilic to a tight 4th set tiebreak isn’t the worst form in the world, and that is exactly what the player I am backing was able to do at the start of last week.
I really do think that Vasek Pospisil will take a lot out of his time in Australian in January, and it will be a springboard for him to burst his way back into the top 100, perhaps even 50 if his body holds up in 2018. Pospisil’s January was the perfect amount of quality tennis under his belt, but also not playing too much tennis that he would now be fatigued…if that makes sense. Pospisil got some really solid tennis under his belt in Perth at the Hopman Cup, with a 3 set loss to Kokkinakis, followed by straight sets losses to both Zverev and Goffin. Although he lost all 3 matches, it gave him a very solid lead-in to the Australian Open Qualifying. With 3 solid victories along the way, Pospisil found himself in the main draw. Unfortunately for the Canadian, Lu withdrew from the main draw prior to the Qualifiers being placed in the main draw – which lead to an opening in the draw next to the name Marin Cilic. After being comprehensively being outplayed in the first two sets, Pospisil flipped the script on Cilic in the 3rd set – winning it 6-4, before breaking Cilic as he served for the match, saving 4 match points on the way to a tiebreak, where he unfortunately fell 5-7. I was there live and Pospisil’s confidence in his game seemed to almost increase as the match went on, culminating in a near 5th set against the now Australian Open finalist. Pospisil backed this up against Uchiyama in the first round here in Rennes, saving his only 2 break points faced on his way to a comfortable 6-3 6-4 victory.
I spoke a lot about Moraing in my Fatigue Fader plays last night, and he certainly wasn’t at his best last night. Hemery should have got the job done, but Moraing was able to prevail in a tight 3 set match in the end. Happy to be up against Moraing again tonight in what I believe to be a very solid price for Pospisil given the form and the situation we are finding ourselves in tonight.
5 units Pospisil to defeat Moraing at $1.71 at Pinnacle