Australian Open 2017 Round 1 – Monday

Day 1 Multi

I have received a lot of comments and messages asking for multis. At the moment, and especially on day 1, it can be hard enough to find a single winner let alone legs and legs of them. Nevertheless, this is what I have come up with at Bet365:

Leg 1: Viktor Troicki to defeat Damir Dzumhur ($1.22)

Leg 2: Malek Jaziri to defeat Go Soeda ($1.61)

Leg 3: Steve Johnson to defeat Federico Delbonis ($1.25)

Leg 4: Kiki Bertens to defeat Varvara Lepchenko ($1.53)

Leg 5: Julia Boserup to defeat Francesca Schiavone ($1.66)

Odds: $6.31

NOTE: No units are involved in multi bet suggestions.

Chase The Ace Suggestions

Whilst the promotion is nowhere near as good as it was last year, here is a list of players who may be suitable for Chase the Ace today:

– Nick Kyrgios

– John Isner

– Steve Johnson

– Viktor Troicki

– Andy Murray

– Roger Federer

– Tomas Berdych

– Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

– Sam Querrey

 

Alex De Minaur vs Gerald Melzer

This presents a very interesting matchup in my opinion. De Minaur has certainly turned heads across the Australian summer, having qualified in Brisbane on his way to losing to crafty left hander Mischa Zverev (I will talk more about left handers in a minute). He then went to Sydney, and defeat Benoit Paire before losing to Andrey Kuznetsov down 2-6 before retiring. In his press conference, De Minaur said he was struggling with a side strain, most notably on his serve, and didn’t want to risk any further injury.

Considering De Minaur was in the 2nd round of a main draw at age 17, you can imagine that there must have been a slight issue there for De Minaur, even if only very minor. Minor issues are not issues you want when heading into the first round of the first home Grand Slam appearance of your career at age 17.

Gerald Melzer is a player that isn’t as well known to everyone at the top of the ATP ranks, however he has managed to sneak his way into the top 90 with very little fanfare. What has impressed me most recently with Melzer is his performance against Andy Murray in Doha to start the season. In a match that lasted 2hrs 20 minutes, Melzer played like a top 50 player on his way to a 6-7(6) 5-7 loss. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Melzer continue to improve as 2017 goes on.

Because Melzer hasn’t proven himself on hardcourt and at 5 set level as much as I would like, I cannot make this a stronger play. That being said though, I am happy to make a play on Melzer. If De Minaur can overcome his opponent, his possible injury and his first home Grand Slam match, then I will tip my cap to him.

Suggested Bet
3.5 units Melzer Melzer to beat De Minaur at $1.71 at Pinnacle

Louisa Chirico vs Eugenie Bouchard
I think this is a gross overreaction based off the performance of Bouchard in Sydney, which lets remember is the week before a Grand Slam (not always the best indicator in terms of form/effort). I guess for perspective, on current form, you won’t see many weeks this year where Muller, Evans, Sock, Sousa, Mertens and Niculescu are all in tour level finals. Granted she did beat some quality players, I think against Pavlyuchenkova she managed the conditions better, she was too powerful for Zhang and Cibulkova didn’t appear to be at her best. So yes, the wins are solid, however I don’t think they warrant Bouchard being such a short price here.

Those who were following me late last year will know I have quite a reasonable opinion of Chirico. She has put together some pretty solid performances on hardcourt over the last 12 months. She pushed world number 1 Angelique Kerber to 3 sets in Wuhan, and beat the likes of Bacsinszky, McHale, Niculescu and Bondarenko, as well as taking sets off Kvitova and Stephens amongst others.

Whilst I do believe Boucharg should be favourite, I really don’t think she can be trusted at approximately $1.35 here based off a week of form. I think Chirico has what it takes to cause a bit of an upset here on day 1 of the Australian Open.

Suggested Bet
1 unit Chirico to defeat Bouchard at $3.49 at Pinnacle

Kristyna Pliskova vs V Golubic

I don’t know where the late 2016 form of Golubic has disappeared to (to be fair, that was on indoor), but Golubic has looked underwhelming through her matches to start 2017. My concern for her in this match against Pliskova is that the match will ultimately rest on the racquet of Pliskova.

Short, sharp and to the point here. This match is Pliskova’s to lose in my opinion. The form around Pliskova is great when you consider her efforts in Shenzhen, going deep into a 3rd set with Jo Konta.

Anything over $1.55 here is value in my opinion, so I am comfortable making a small play here on the head to head price.

Suggested Bet
2.5 units Pliskova to beat Golubic at $1.71 at Pinnacle

Andrey Kuznetsov vs Kei Nishikori
Well well well…can Kuznetsov get revenge for his losses to Nishikori at Roland Garros and Wimbledon last year, when these two meet for the 3rd time in 4 Grand Slams?

This is possibly Kuznetsov’s best chance in recent memory to knock off a big scalp at Grand Slam level. I may be a sucker for punishment, however I do feel that this is quite a price for Kuznetsov to get the job done here.
Nishikori put together a very solid week in Brisbane to start the season, making the final before succumbing to Grigor Dimitrov, and what appeared to be a niggling hip complaint, which also caused him to pull out of the Fast4 Exhibition in Sydney.

I like the price on Kuznetsov here before you even consider the fact that Nishikori may be carrying the slightest of niggles (note Nishikori has retired hurt 17 times in his career, and lost via withdrawal pre-match on 5 occasions. Nishikori also hasn’t been the best starter some years at the Australian Open, having dropped a set vs Hanescu a few years back as well as being taken to 5 sets by Marinko Matosevic on a scorching Melbourne day.

Suggested Bet
1.5 units Kuznetsov to defeat Nishikori at $8.70 at Betfair after commission
3 units Kuznetsov +7.5 games against Nishikori at $1.96 at Pinnacle

James Duckworth vs Paolo Lorenzi

More than happy to be siding with the Aussie in Duckworth here in front of a rowdy outside court full of Australian fans (and most likely the Fanatics as Sam Groth is also in action on that court). James finished the 2016 tennis season with some exceptional tennis at Challenger level, winning 13 of his last 14 matches, including very solid wins against some very tidy opposition (Thompson, Duckworth, Masur, Nishioka, Lee, Jasika).

Lorenzi, on the other hand, would be the first to admit that hardcourt isn’t his favourite surface, although he has been a little bit better over the last 12 months or so. That being said, I still am slightly shocked that Duckworth has opened as an underdog here all things considered. Late 2016 form, home court, raucous crowd, all seems to suit Duckworth advancing here. I am quite confident here that Duckworth is the way to go.

Suggested Bet
4 units Duckworth to defeat Lorenzi at $2.10 at Bet365

Shelby Rogers vs Simona Halep
This is a VERY interesting matchup in my opinion. Those who have been following this week will know what kind of performances Rogers has been putting up of late, as well as late last year. She is certainly one many will be watching throughout 2017. When Rogers plays, you very quickly realise that more often than not the match rests on the racquet of Rogers, be it winners or unforced errors.

What has also become noticeable at times is that as matches progress, sometimes the errors can also increase, leading to first set victories with full match losses. For example, Rogers is 27 wins-24 losses over the last 12 months across all surfaces (14-16 on hardcourt), however has a 32 wins – 19 losses record in 1st sets (19-11 on hardcourt). Hopefully by now, you will have figured out where I am heading with this play.

Halep on the other hand has a 44-18 record across the last 12 months (25-13 hardcourt), yielding a 40-22 record in first sets (25-13 hardcourt). If there is a time period over a match to be backing against Halep, the first set appears to be the way to go here.

Rogers better in first sets than matches, and Halep better in matches than first sets. Happy to have a piece of the odds available on Rogers to win the first set here.

Suggested Bet
2 units Rogers to win 1st set vs Halep at $4.33 at Bet365

Katerina Siniakova vs Julia Goerges
For mine, these odds are currently way off what they should be. Katerina Siniakova is going to be a well-known name by the end of 2017 in my opinion, and she started 2017 perfectly with her title win in Shenzhen, beating Peng, Halep, Stojanovic, Konta and Riske on the way to her title win. There are some pretty big names in that list!

I get the feeling that Goerges may be a little shorter in the odds than anticipated due to her win a fortnight ago against Wozniacki. If this match was played on indoor hardcourt, I could potentially see where oddsmakers are coming from, or maybe they just don’t know enough about Siniakova. One way or another, I am backing Siniakova to win here, as I think she should get the job done (so long as she holds her nerve).

Suggested Bet

4 units Siniakova to beat Goerges at $1.78 at Pinnacle

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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