2013 Australian Open Day 12

With a spot in the final up for grabs, it will be a no holds bared affair tonight between Federer and Murray. For those who looked at the sides of the draw and the potential dates played, you were fairly certain that Djokovic would be watching a game tonight between Murray and Federer. So who wins? Whose serve reigns supreme?

Roger Federer vs Andy Murray

Playtime: Friday Night

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Roger Federer (vs Benoit Paire) Andy Murray (vs Robin Haase)
Score 6-2 6-4 6-1 6-3 6-1 6-3
Time on Court 83 minutes 97 minutes
1st Serves in 44/69 (64%) 54/74 (73%)
1st Serves pts won 37/44 (84%) 39/54 (72%)
2nd Serve pts won 15/25 (60%) 10/20 (50%)
Break pts saved 3/3 (100%) 5/7 (71%)
Break points won 6/12 (50%) 8/13 (62%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Roger Federer (vs Nikolay Davydenko) Andy Murray (vs Joao Sousa)
Score 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-2 6-2 6-4
Time on Court 119 minutes 101 minutes
1st Serves in 62/91 (68%) 45/77 (58%)
1st Serves pts won 47/62 (76%) 36/45 (80%)
2nd Serve pts won 19/29 (66%) 21/32 (66%)
Break pts saved 0/0 0/0
Break points won 3/13 (23%) 5/8 (63%)

Review of Round 3 Matches

Player (Opponent) Roger Federer (vs Bernard Tomic) Andy Murray (vs Ricadis Berankis)
Score 6-4 7-6 6-1 6-3 6-4 7-5
Time on Court 118 minutes 132 minutes
1st Serves in 66/95 (69%) 77/114 (68%)
1st Serves pts won 58/66 (88%) 55/77 (71%)
2nd Serve pts won 13/29 (45%) 14/37 (38%)
Break pts saved 1/1 (100%) 9/12 (75%)
Break points won 3/16 (19%) 6/13 (46%)

Review of Round 4 Matches

Player (Opponent) Roger Federer (vs Milos Raonic) Andy Murray (vs Gilles Simon)
Score 6-4 7-6 6-2 6-3 6-1 6-3
Time on Court 113 minutes 95 minutes
1st Serves in 50/78 (64%) 39/63 (62%)
1st Serves pts won 45/50 (90%) 30/39 (77%)
2nd Serve pts won 21/28 (75%) 14/24 (58%)
Break pts saved 0/0 0/2 (0%)
Break points won 3/7 (43%) 8/15 (53%)

Review of Quarter Final Matches

Player (Opponent) Roger Federer (vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) Andy Murray (vs Jeremy Chardy)
Score 7-6 4-6 7-6 3-6 6-3 6-4 6-1 6-2
Time on Court 214 minutes 111 minutes
1st Serves in 97/158 (61%) 51/75
1st Serves pts won 75/97 (77%) 41/51 (80%)
2nd Serve pts won 34/61 (56%) 7/24 (29%)
Break pts saved 4/9 (44%) 3/5 (60%)
Break points won 4/18 (22%) 8/11 (73%)

Summary: here we have the semi final matchup we have been waiting for. Andy Murray vs Roger Federer, Friday night on Rod Laver Arena. Both players have had contrasting runs to the SFs, one with the easiest, and one with the most difficult.

Andy Murray has had an absolute dream run to this point. The biggest problem he has had is not being allocated a night match so far this year. Cruising through without dropping a set, Murray has had minimal challenges up until this point. Gilles Simon was lucky to take the court in the 4th round, and Jeremy Chardy in the QF just looked happy to be there.

Roger Federer had it all his own way until he came up against jo-Wilfired Tsonga on Wednesday night. He played some of the best tiebreak tennis you will ever see in that match, but he still wasn’t particularly convincing. I am the first to admit I had my doubts over Federer as we entered that last set, but like all great players do, he stepped it up when he needed!

The Conditions

This is the first night match of the tournament for Andy Murray. He has been particularly annoyed with the scheduling so far, but you don’t get night matches if you aren’t playing big high quality matches like we have seen over the last week.

Andy Murray doesn’t seem like he enjoys change too much. He likes what is familiar to him, and if those conditions are changed, then there is a bit of an adjustment period for Murray. This was evident in his third round match with Berankis. He wasn’t quite his usual self. It was his first match on Rod Laver Arena, having played his first two rounds over at Hisense Arena. Although he still won comfortably, it wasn’t vintage Murray.

Head to Head

Andy Murray Leads 10-9

Roger Federer Leads 3-0 in Grand Slams (all 3 are in Grand Slam Finals)

The Final Word

You’ll have noticed over the last fortnight that I am interested heavily in previous meetings and trends. I have seen a lot of talk on social media about how Federer is 3-0 in Grand Slam meetings against Murray, as if that is all that really matters.

Let’s have a look at those matches. All three of them came in finals, and all three of them came prior to Andy breaking his Grand Slam hoodoo. This is a completely different scenario. This isn’t a final, this isn’t a Grand Slamless Murray. The history means nothing.

Here is how I see tonight panning out. I think Federer gets the jump on Murray, as Andy will take a little while to adjust to not only the night conditions, but having a quality player across the net from him. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Federer take the first set.

Overall though, I think this is going to be a tight set that Murray should win. But I am not going back Murray head to head or at the line. I am going to back him to win over 20.5 total games, and here is why:

–          I think Murray wins, but if he loses, it should be in a mighty close match

–          If he wins, I will be very surprised if it is in straight sets (if it is, then 7-5 7-5 7-5 is still in play)

I think the over 20.5 games is the way to go. Say Murray drops the first set 6-3, then if Murray wins, we win.

Note: For those who followed us in on the Betfair enhanced odds promotion yesterday, you effectively have Andy Murray h2h at $6. As I have stated, I do like Murray here tonight, but if you want to hedge to get your stake back, get on Federer at Sportsbet. That way, if Murray wins in 5, not only have you won your Betfair multi, but your hedging stake will be refunded thanks to the 5 set refund promotion. Something to think about……

Suggested Bet: Andy Murray over 20.5 games at $1.82 at Sportsbet
Confidence Level: 70%

*Editors Note: If you want something with a little higher confidence, you can lay the 3 sets in the match under the ‘Total Sets’ betting option on Betfair which is currently sitting at $3.10.

Photo By Andy_Murray_(US_Open_2012).jpeg: Francisco Diez derivative work: Fred053 [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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