2013 Australian Open Day 3


Day 2 was an improvement on day 1 and with a little bit of luck, it could have been a perfect day.

2 wins and loss on the women’s tips. Peng was convincing and Wickmayer was a solid winner, even after trailing a break in the second set. The loss was with Vinci missing 3 break point opportunities at 6-3 4-4 that would have gone a very long way to keeping the total games under 19.5.
The men produced the most frustrating 3-2 performance I have ever been a part of. All 5 players we backed won the first set. Duckworth nearly lost a 2 sets to 0 lead, however he got over the line 8-6 in the 5th, keeping the bet on him as Top Australian alive at $23. Tsonga covered the -6.5 line and Tomic was comprehensive in his 3-0 victory. Bedene coughed up a number of key chances, being broken at 5-5 in the third set, as well as at 5-4 when serving in the 4th set. They are match killers. An ultimately frustrating way for a best bet to go down. Dolgopolov won the first set, but you never got the sense he was in control. Monfils fed off the energy of the crowd to get over the line in 4 sets, even though Dolgopolov went up a break early in the 4th set.
Onto Day 3. We have seen everyone play once now. It is time to get down to business.

Best Bet
Zheng to win over 10.5 games vs Stosur @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)
Janowicz -5.5 games @ $1.95 (Betfair Fixed and Pinnacle)

Next Best
Ivanovic 2-0 vs Chan @ $1.62 (Sportsbet)
Wawrinka -6.5 games @ $1.85 (Betfair Fixed and Pinnacle)
Tipsaravic -6.5 games @ $2 (Sportsbet)

Best Value
Flipkens H2H @ $2.18 (Sportsbet)

Betfair Multi – Women
Goerges -4 games
Kerber 2-0
Bartoli 2-0
Ivanovic 2-0
Pays $6.41 and is eligible for Betfair 50% bonus

Betfair Multi – Men
Benneteau
Wawrinka
Tipsaravic 3-0
Malisse/Verdasco over 40.5 games
Janowicz
Pays $7.05 and is eligible for Betfair 50% bonus

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Tobias Kamke

Playtime: 2nd on Court 2

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Tobias Kamke (vs Flavio Cipolla) Stan Wawrinka (vs C.M. Stebe)
1st Serves in 46/84 (55%) 52/82 (63%)
1st Serves pts won 31/46 (67%) 39/52 (75%)
2nd Serve pts won 22/38 (58%) 21/30 (70%)
Break pts saved 4/6 (67%) 2/2 (100%)
Break points won 8/13 (62%) 4/9 (44%)

Summary: Here we have another case of an inconsistent mid-range player being given a respectable handicap based on their first round performance.

At Grand Slam level, Kamke has faced top 30 players 8 times. Of those 8, he has only taken a set off two (Dolgopolov and Seppi). Of those 8, he has only covered the 6.5 handicap on offer once in 8 attempts.

Refining that down to hardcourt prior to this tournament, Kamke has a career 1-5 record. Last year, he beat Hanescu at almost a similar scoreline to his win over Cipolla. He then came out the next match and although he took Dolgopolov to 8-6 in the 5th, he lost the other two sets 1-6 1-6. In those 5 career losses, he has only covered the 6.5 handicap once, vs Kohlschreiber. A common trend is the number of 1-6 and 2-6 set losses that occur (9 out of the 21 sets in losses). All it will take is one of those here and the handicap should be covered comfortably by Wawrinka.

I have really liked how Wawrinka has been striking the ball to start the year. He seems like he is in a really good headspace, which is crucial to him playing well. He is too good here.

Suggested Bet: Wawrinka -6.5 games at $1.84 at Pinnacle (no lines available at Aust. Books at time of writing)
Confidence: 65%
H2H: No previous meetings

Somdev Devvarman vs Jerzy Janowicz

Playtime: 1st on Court 8

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Somdev Devvarman (vs Phau) Jerzy Janowicz (vs Bolelli)
1st Serves in 61/95 (64%) 59/99 (60%)
1st Serves pts won 40/61 (66%) 48/59 (81%)
2nd Serve pts won 20/34 (59%) 17/40 (43%)
Break pts saved 13/14 (93%) 3/5 (60%)
Break points won 6/9 (67%) 6/9 (67%)

Summary: Having had a look over the statistics, you would have to think that the bookies have read too much into Devvarman’s victory over Bjorn Phau. Phau had one of the worst form lines leading up to the Australian Open.

Taking a look at Devvarman’s form strictly at ATP level last year, it doesn’t make great reading:

Matches: 9
Win/Loss: 3-6
His three victories came against players ranked 106, 337 and 137. Two of those came in three tight sets. Of the losses, they aren’t pretty:
·         3-6 1-6 vs Berdych (rank 6)
·         2-6 0-6 vs Kudla (rank 164)
·         6-7 3-6 vs Gulbis (rank 579)
·         3-6 2-6 6-3 4-6 vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo (lost 2-6 1-6 6-4 1-6 today)
·         2-6 0-6 vs Ben Becker (rank 90)
·         3-6 1-6 vs Jarkko Nieminen

In those 6 losses alone, he gave his opponents 70 break point opportunities. 70! He continually puts himself under pressure on his serve, and this is shown again Monday by giving Phau a look-in 14 times on serve. He did save 13, but a player of Janowicz’s skill level will make the most of those, there is no doubt about it.

If Janowicz serves a high percentage of first serves, this game will be one of the most comfortable of the day. Too many weapons here for Janowicz. With minimal wind forecast for the morning, Janowicz should have no issues with his serve either, like he did in Auckland.

NOTE: Excluding round 1, Devvarman has not covered the 5.5 handicap at a Grand Slam since the US Open in 2009.

Suggested Bet: Jerzy Janowicz -5.5 at $1.87 at Pinnacle (No handicap out at any Australian sites at time of writing)
Confidence: 70%
H2H: Devvarman leads 1-0 (Qualifying US Open 2009)

Janko Tipsaravic vs Lukas Lacko

Playtime: 4th on Court 2

Review of Round 1 matches

Player (Opponent) Janko Tipsaravic (vs Hewitt) Lukas Lacko (vs Muller)
1st Serves in 64/107 (60%) 59/96 (61%)
1st Serves pts won 50/64 (78%) 51/59 (86%)
2nd Serve pts won 21/43 (49%) 20/37 (54%)
Break pts saved 2/5 (40%) 6/7 (86%)
Break points won 5/13 (38%) 4/6 (67%)

Summary:
Tipsaravic was absolutely clinical on Monday night against Lleyton Hewitt, defeating him in straight sets and playing some terrific tennis. I had my doubts regarding his fitness coming into the Australian Open. With those questions comprehensively erased, all I see now is one of the in-form players on the tour ready to go here against Lacko.

Lacko had an easy win over Muller. To be honest, almost every other main draw player would have had an easy win over Muller the way he has been playing lately (1 win since October).

Again, let’s break down the performances of Lacko vs top 20 players in 2012:

Matches: 8
Win/Loss: 0-8

In those 8 losses, he didn’t win a set. In fact, across all 8 matches he averaged 2.52 games per set.

Looking at it from a different perspective, let’s break down the performances of Lacko at Grand Slam level vs top 20 players:

Matches: 7

Win/Loss: 0-7

In those 8 losses, he only won one set (a tiebreak vs Youzhny in 2010 at Roland Garros). In those 7 matches, he would have covered a +6.5 line 0 times, a +7.5 line once and a +9.5 line twice. Long story short when he falls, he falls hard. In those 7 matches, he gave his opponents a look at a combined 85 break point opportunities. At Grand Slam level vs top 20 players, it appears that nerves certainly get the better of Lacko. I can’t see much changing here.

If Tipsaravic plays the way he did on Friday night, he wins this well. Some may want to play 3-0 instead of the handicap, however this -6.5 gives us a look in if Tipsaravic drops a tiebreak or a close set.

Suggested Bet: Tipsaravic -6.5 games @ $2 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 65%
H2H: Tipsaravic leads 1-0 (meeting in 2008)

J Zheng v S Stosur

Playtime: 3rd on Rod Laver Arena

Stosur kicked off her Australian Open campaign with a less than convincing win over Kai Chen Chang on Monday, winning 7-6 (7-3) 6-3. In post match interviews, Stosur sounded relieved to make it through the first round however she still has a long way to go fend off those home soil demons. Jie Zheng is a very tough next round opponent and Stosur will need to be on her toes for this match after being beaten by Zheng in 3 sets only a week ago.

Stosur and Zheng have met 5 times (all on hard courts) and of these 5 meetings, 4 matches have gone to 3 sets. Zheng showed in Sydney that she can match it with Stosur while Stosur still has plenty to do to convince everyone she is back in form.

Stosur has a lot of work to do to win this match and if she does, it won’t be without a fight from Zheng.

Suggested Bet: Zheng to win over 10.5 games @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 80%
H2H: Stosur 3-2 (all meetings on hard court)
Most recent result: Zheng 6-3 6-7 6-4 (7th January 2013 @ Sydney)

A Ivanovic v Y.J Chan

Playtime: 4th on Margaret Court Arena

Chan, ranked 118th in the world, comes off a 6-1 1-6 6-1 win over the world number 44 Daniela Hantuchova. This is only the second time Chan has reached and second round of the Australian Open and she is in for a tough match vs world number 13 Ana Ivanovic.

Ivanovic comes off an impressive 6-2 6-1 win over Czink in her first round match where the match only lasted close to an hour. Ivanovic looks to be in top form and will outclass Chan here. While I think Chan could win a few games (tip: avoid the total games under/over market) Ivanovic has the ability to close this match out in 2.

Suggested Bet: Ivanovic 2-0 vs Chan @ $1.62
Confidence: 75%

Flipkens v Zakopalova

Playtime: 1st on Court 6

The only time Flipkens and Zakopalova met was way back in June 2011 (with Flipkens winning 6-3 6-2). Flipkens has grown immensely as a player since then, especially over the last 12 months. Flipkens 12 month record stands at 63-19 (77%) – some of those wins include wins against some quality players (Lisicki, Ivanovic, Barthel). Zakopalova’s 12 month record stands at 34-24 (59%). Flipkens also holds an edge over Zakopalova in terms of a hard court record over the last 12 months with Flipkens at 12-4 (75%) and Zakopalova 12-12 (50%).

Flipkens has everything in her favour here and I expect her to play a great match. When Flipkens is paying over $2 against an opponent who has not been as consistent as herself, I see this as a big value play.

Suggested Bet: Flipkens H2H @ $2.18 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 65%

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Charlie Cowins (originally posted to Flickr as sam volley 2) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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