Personally, I have traded out very partially on my Tsonga play. This especially considering the Tsonga Quarter winner at just over $5 is still on play too. I understand not many are on that, so I have still completed a write up. I would suggest if you are on either or both of the futures, to assess your options and make your own decision. You have gross overs in both markets. It is up to you to decide how to wish to approach this match.
We also have Ferrer h2h at just over $2 thanks to the Futures bet. That, along with the Ferrer outright trading prospect, is enough for me in that match. No point getting involved further, and I can’t get a read on Robredo!
I will be offline until 10pm Melbourne time, and will endeavour to answer all questions on twitter at @Ace_TheProfits from then.
5 Set Refund
Tsonga h2h at $2.50 at Centrebet with 5 set refund
Radwanska -2.5 games
Quarter Final – Roger Federer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Time: Approx Midnight Melbourne Time
Round 1 Stats
Round 2 Stats
Round 3 Stats
Round 4 Stats
I don’t think you can read too much into that match from Federer against Simon. Yes, he did have a fall and Simon capitalised and upped his game in sets 2 and 3, however Federer was a class above for 90% of the match. That being said, more and more errors are starting to creep into the game of Federer.
There is no point trying to find any major negatives when you talk about the game of Federer. You don’t win as many Slams as he has without being an incredible player. What is to be noted is Federer is starting to have more and more uncharacteristic losses as the years progress. Roger is yet to win a title this year, and we are already in June!
In typical Federer fashion, he has been producing a high amount of winners, bullying his way through against Carreno-Busta and Devvarman. Things started to become a bit tighter against hometown Beneteau, and then we all know what happened with Simon. He is going to seriously lift his game if he is to beat Tsonga tonight. I think the gap to Tsonga has closed considerably over the last 6 months.
As I have said prior to the tournament starting, Tsonga has had one of the easier draws of any of the top players. When I made that comment, I meant all matches were incredibly winnable. He has come up against some players who have been particulary impressive at times in the last few weeks. Troicki, Nieminen and Chardy are certainly no slouches. To get through to the Quarter Final without dropping a set, and
The most impressive thing about Tsonga has been the backhand side. Through the 12 sets he has played, Tsonga has committeed approximately 33 unforced errors on his backhand side in rallies. To give you some context, when Tsonga played Federer at the Australian Open, he committed approximately 27 backhand errors in the 5 sets. While I will admit that playing Federer will promote increased errors purely due to his presence across the net, it is still a good sign for Tsonga leading into the match that his backhand side is holding up well.
We saw in Melbourne that Tsonga made a concerted effort to get around the ball and play his off-forehand more often. While I had my doubts about Tsonga and Rasheed in Melbourne (was on Fed at the – in that game), they have won me over. Tsonga’s agility and fitness allow him a few things. He can rally longer, meaning he can wait longer for ‘that’ shot that will change the rally, and it means he can run around onto his forehand more frequently.
If there is a time for Tsonga to take advantage of his draw and make another Grand Slam final, now is the time. He came so incredibly close last year to knocking off Djokovic last year, squandering 4 match points before being beaten in 5 sets. Novak then went on to defeat Federer in straight sets.
The Final Word
I like Tsonga to get up with the home crowd tonight. I don’t say this lightly, but I genuinely think Federer is vulnerable here. Tsonga knows what he needs to do to beat Federer. He has the firepower. He has the movement. He has the serve. He has the determination. He has the fitness. Now is his time.
For those interested, I will be live tweeting throughout the match. There is every possibility that a better opportunity to bet will occur during the match.
Suggested Bet: Tsonga h2h at $2.50 at Centrebet with 5 set refund
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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