Day 1 of Grand Slams just don’t seem to fall my way. Similar stories of near misses and unlosable losses thwarted the first day of the Australian Open too. It is disappointing, however it is the reason why I like to exercise caution in the first round of a Grand Slam. Once again, trying to be selective early as I wait for more stats to come to hand as the tournament progresses.
The Raonic 3-0 loss is a frustrating one. 6-2 6-1 and break points at 4-4 and he goes on to lose the set on the first break point he faced.
If you had told me David Ferrer would win 8 consecutive games against Matosevic, I would have assumed the under 27.5 games was going to hit. Alas, it was not to be, with Marinko playing out of his skin throughout the match. Ferrer will need to up his consistency if he wants to feature in the 2nd weekend of Roland Garros.
Simon. Where to begin. The last 3 sets were what I was after. A shame two heavy set losses preceding it ruined any chance of the -6.5 hitting.
Today is a new day. Once again I advise caution. My personal confidence levels increase throughout the tournament, as those were around witnessed during the Australian Open.
Janowicz H2H @ $1.70 at Centrebet (5 set refund)
Dutra Silva under 11.5 total games at $1.89 at Pinnacle vs Gulbis (ALTERNATIVE – under 30.5 games)
Pays $6.24 – must place on Betfair Mobile for 50% multi bonus if successful
Li Na under 19.5 games at Betfair
Maria Sharapova -7.5 games at $1.72 at Luxbet
BEST OF THE REST
Sijsling h2h @ $1.75 at Centrebet (5 set refund)
Kamke -1.5 sets at $1.88 at Sportsbet
Kyrgios +7.5 games at $1.95 at Sportingbet vs Stepanek
5 SET REFUND – BEST UPSET
Kyrgios at $5.80 vs Stepanek
Alund at $3.40 vs Roger-Vasselin
Game 1 – Jerzy Janowicz vs Albert Ramos
Jerzy is one of the most entertaining players to watch on tour without a doubt. I must say after a couple of sub-par performances since his Paris final last year, I was starting to have my doubts about Jerzy. His ball striking over the last week or two has been great though. You know when you back Jerzy, you are backing the guy that will be in control and dictating the majority of the points in the match, which is something I find far more comfortable.
Clay isn’t a foreign surface to Janowicz. He was incredibly effective on the red stuff last year on the Challenger circuit. In the last 12 months he made the 1/4s of Szczecin, Semis of Prostejov, and won titles in Scheveningen and Poznan.
A bit of an indifferent start to the clay season for Jerzy. Losses to in-form Kevin Anderson 5-7 6-7, followed by a loss to Albert Ramos in his hometown 6-4 2-6 3-6 in an interesting match. I am not going to read too much into it personally, with both players in different form now, and Ramos obviously not playing in his home country this time around.
As always with Jerzy, he saves his best for the big tournaments. After knocking off Querrey in Madrid, Jerzy pushed Tomas Berdych to 3 sets, before really impressingin Rome. Straight set win over Giraldo in windy conditions, a dominant win over Tsonga, tight 3 set win over Gasquet and Janowicz found himself in a quarter final against Roger Federer. He really impressed me and held his own against Fed, falling 4-6 6-7 in a tightly contested match.
Albert is one of those players on tour that would play clay court tennis 12 months a year. That being said, his ranking is floating around the 50-60 mark and he really isn’t deserving of a ranking that low.
Outside of the Janowicz win, his form on clay has a ‘beaten who he has supposed to’ feel about it. Wins over Dutra Silva, Volandri (x2), Garcia-Lopez, Cipolla, L Mayer, Stepanek, Nishikori, Berlocq and Hajek isn’t setting the world alight. No wins there sit on the level of Janowicz and his form a fortnight ago. I just personally think Ramos is playing far below his ability at the moment, and the last two tournaments in particular have been concerning in my opinion.
- Janowicz is 18-2 the last 12 months on clay when winning 75% or more points on his 1st serve
- Janowicz is 15-1 the last 12 months on clay when winning 56% or more points on his 2nd serve
- Ramos has conceded 40 break point opps against lesser opponents than Janowicz in his last 5 matches. In that time, Jerzy has conceded 27 (11 of which were against Giraldo in incredibly windy conditions – all saved)
The Final Word
Jerzy for me. He has the potential. He has the form. He has the serve. He has a great break point save rate of late. He has confidence. He has what it takes to win here.
I like the $1.75 at Centrebet with the 5 set refund. (NOTE: for those who are asking if I like Jerzy to win without the safety net of the refund, of course I do. It is just nice to have if you can get it.)
I think Jerzy gets over the line in 4 and will tear his shirt off at the end upon winning!
Suggested Bet: Janowicz H2H @ $1.70 at Centrebet (5 set refund)
Game 2 – Ernests Gulbis vs Rogerio Dutra Silva
I think we all know by now my thoughts on Ernests Gulbis. I am going to keep this one short. There is no point looking at previous H2H, because 2012 Gulbis is nothing like 2013 Gulbis.
I firmly believe Gulbis is in the top 6 players on the circuit at the moment. He is playing absolutely ruthless tennis and is playing matches on his terms and his terms only. He means business here and this should be a decent start here for Ernie.
Dutra Silva is in my opinion a great example of a really good Challenger player who just doesn’t quite cut it against the ATP boys at the moment. His only career victory on the ATP level on clay vs a top 100 player was Gulbis funnily enough. Outside of that, he has only won one set vs top 100 opponents, and that was back in 2011 vs Chela in a tiebreak. Rogerio’s lead-in form has been respectable, with 2 Challenger titles last month, however straight sets losses to Capdeville, Naso and Stakhovsky put an end to that run. The loss to Stakhovsky was particularly concerning, wiped off the court 2-6 3-6.
If Stakhovsky can do that to Dutra Silva, I fear for what Ernie may do.
Suggested Bet: Dutra Silva under 11.5 total games at $1.885 at Pinnacle