Simona Halep vs Kiki Bertens
Here we have the favourite for Roland Garros against one of the players I consider to be a dark horse to go deep into the second week of next week’s Grand Slam.
Since the start of 2015 on clay, this will be only the 4th time in which Kiki Bertens is longer than $3.50 in head to head betting before a match.
|Serena Williams vs Kiki Bertens||Roland Garros||3/06/2016||Semi Final||7-6(7) 6-4|
|Kiki Bertens vs Angelique Kerber||Roland Garros||24/05/2016||First||6-2 3-6 6-3|
|Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Kiki Bertens||Roland Garros||26/05/2015||First||6-1 4-6 6-2|
What we can see with these three previous long odds matchups – Kiki Bertens doesn’t shy away from the big moments. In a semi final against Serena Williams at Roland Garros last year, Bertens had more break points (10 to 8) and only lost 3 more points vs Serena, quite an impressive feat. All this from the same tournament in which she knocked off Aus Open 2016 champ Kerber in her first Grand Slam match since that triumph. The key things here – all three matches have gone over their allotted games totals, and Bertens has covered in 2 of 3 (unable to cover vs Kuznetsova).
There have been 21 matches on clay since the start of 2015 where Simona Halep has started $1.25-$1.50 favourite. Of those 21 matches, she has won 15 and lost 6. In her 15 wins, she has covered a line of -4.5 games on 12 of those occasions. The average total games across these 21 matches is 19.71 games, with only 4 of the 21 matches going to 3 sets. In Haleps 6 losses, 4 have gone over the 20.5 games on offer tonight, and 2 have gone under. In her 15 victories, only 2 of these have gone over the 20.5 game mark.
This would suggest that if Simona Halep is to get the job done tonight, it will be in straight sets whilst covering the -4.5 game handicap, whereas if Bertens were to get the job done, I would lean towards a 3 set match. I am more than happy to side with Simona on her current form, as she is arguably in the best form of her career at present.
4.25 units Simona Halep to defeat Kiki Bertens and cover -4.5 game handicap at $1.88 at Pinnacle
Suggested Saver Bet
0.75 units Kiki Bertens to win in 3 sets at $7.50 at Bet365