A couple of matches have caught my eye overnight. With some starting soon, I will post these up as I go:
ATP Montpellier Qualifiers
Sakharov vs Millot
Not sure I can find any redeeming reason to back Millot to get the job done here. I look back across recent hard court performances of both players, and I am more drawn to the players Sakharov has beaten of late. Youzhny, Humbert, Ruud, Robert (won title in Burnie this week), Ivashka and Djere amongst others seems to be better form than Millot, who was absolutely destroyed by Quentin Halys only 2 days ago in the Quimper Challenger. Millot was able to beat De Greef in Quimper, however he has only won 3 matches since July at ATP/Challenger level. There was this little patch in 2017 where Millot lifted his hardcourt game, defeating Verdasco in Mexico, and taking a set off Querrey and defeating De Schepper, but in this game at these odds, I am going to take the more consistent Sakharov to get the job done on indoor hardcourt.
3.5 units Sakharov to defeat Millot at $1.65 at Pinnacle
ATP Sofia qualification
sonego vs gulbis
I am happy to oppose Gulbis until he can prove that he is back at ATP level and able to show he can put together 3 sets of solid tennis. Losing to Hassan in 3 sets, beating the lesser Ymer in 3 sets, and losing to Guinard in 3 sets is not anywhere near the level that is needed. Sonego on the other hand is coming off a pretty impressive Australian Open Qualifying effort, where he also managed to knock off Haase in the first round (although made exceptionally hard work of it – check the point by point on Flashscore!) before losing in straight sets to Richard Gasquet, who put up probably his best performance of the year in that match.
When you consider the late 2017 Challenger form of Sonego (won Ortisei Challenger, and lost Ismaning Challenger Final 5-7 in third set), and how well he served and played in Melbourne, I cannot go past the price on offer. Sonego is a class above those Gulbis has struggled with so far this year, so I have to take his side here…sorry Ernie!
5 units Sonego to defeat Gulbis at $1.73 at Pinnacle