The ATP season is coming to a close, and as a result, all tennis bettors have to be wary of a few extra factors. The main factor with the last month or two of the season is fatigue. You only need to look as far as the final yesterday; how many would have predicted an ATP final featuring the 8th seed Nishikori defeating Canadian Milos Raonic in 3 sets, 6-0 in the 3rd!! Granted Federer, Nadal and Djokovic weren’t present, if this tournament happened earlier in the year, you can bet that Murray, Berdych and Tipsarevic will probably have had more of an impact on the tournament.
With this fatigue comes the possibility for increased upsets in the closing stages of the year. It is the time of year when the mind starts to wander, and you might find a young up-and-comer starting to hit the wall as the gruelling 2012 season comes to a close.
Game 1: Pablo Andujar (Rank: 41) vs Grigor Dimitrov (Rank: 60)
Betting Options, Courtesy of Betfair
|Pablo Andujar||Grigor Dimitrov|
|YTD||19W 24L||20W 15L|
|YTD à Hardcourt||8W 11L||6W 7L|
|H2H||Nil Completed ATP level matches|
|1st Serve % (Hardcourt)||58||61|
|% Points won on 1st Serve||66||73|
|% Service Games won||70||81|
2-5 in 2012 vs top 50 players on hardcourt
Of those 2 wins, NEITHER were in straight sets, neither covering a line of -4 games
The young Belarussian has been flirting with breaking onto the ATP scene over the last year or two, however this year we have finally seen him come of age. After a solid start to the year and an impressive grass court season, it appears as though the long season may be starting to catch up with Dimitrov. He has only won 1 hardcourt match since his return to the surface after Wimbledon, defeating Chinese Taipai’s 249th ranked Tsung-Hua Yang in a 3rd set tiebreak. In that time, losses to Gasquet, Paire (in 4 sets in Rd1 US Open), 100th ranked Rajeev Ram, and 139th ranked Marco Chiudinelli haven’t helped his cause of breaking into the top 50.
4-5 in 2012 vs Players ranked outside top 50 on hardcourt (failed to cover +4 in 3 out of 9 matches)
Of those 5 losses, 2 have been in straight sets, vs Stakhovsky (1st serve % in 38.5%) and vs Giraldo
Pablo appears to have reached plateau with his ranking, just being unable to break into the top 30. That being said, it appears he has made a concerted effort to improve is hard court play this year. Although it still isn’t a flash record, he is certainly improving. Towards the end of this season, his form seems to have maintained, with some very solid performances against quality opposition.
I am sure everyone who attempts to frame a market on this match has Dimitrov as the favourite, purely because of the runs he has on the board this year on hardcourt. That being said, it is hard to see how he can be considered a $1.37 chance. Andujar is the value here there is no doubt about that. Would you back a $1.37 shot who has won one hardcourt match since the start of the current hardcourt season?
Now it is a matter of finding the value.
Those with Betfair —> may be interested in LAYING Dimitrov 2-0 sets at even money.
Line Bettors—> Of the Australian books, Sportingbet is offering $1.80 for Andujar +4 games
Other odds considered ‘overs’ —> Andujar h2h at $3.35 and 2-1 sets at $8
LAY Dimitrov 2-0
BACK Andujar +4 games ($1.80)