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Novak Djokovic vs Ernests Gulbis
2 units Gulbis to defeat Djokovic at $10.63 at Pinnacle
3 units Gulbis to win a set (+2.5 sets) at $2.56 at Pinnacle
I am happy to look past the win of Djokovic in the last round. Yes it was dominant, but Djokovic still seems to have his way over the younger players who struggle to handle the occasion in the best of 5 set format. After a retirement victory in round 1, Djokovic was in no way troubled by Pavlasek, dropping only 5 games on the back of 26 winners and 18 unforced errors, facing only one break point along the way.
What Gulbis has is he is not fazed by the big occasion. He made the Roland Garros Semi Final previously (lost to Novak in 4), he has beaten Roger Federer at Grand Slam level. Yes grass is in no way his favourite surface, but over the last few years when his forehand has been on, he has been dangerous regardless of who is on the other side of the net. Last year Gulbis showed how well he matched up against Novak by pushing him at $15 in Montreal, to the point where Gulbis actually had 2 match points in the second set.
Considering the aura of invincibility that appears to be fading a touch when discussing Djokovic, combined with Gulbis hitting 60 winners to 22 unforced errors in his straight sets victory over Del Potro, makes this an appealing match to tackle. What I like here is Gulbis will continue to go for broke regardless of the score (see Roland Garros semi final when he took the third set), and if he serves well and attacks the Djokovic second serve, he could pull off a massive upset.