An intriguing matchup awaits us in Rome tonight, as French Open favourite Simona Halep comes up against Elina Svitolina. These two are arguably the form women coming into the most open women’s Grand Slam in the last 15 years, so this will certainly be a fascinating contest.
Road to the Final
| ELINA SVITOLINA | ||
| Semi Final | ||
| 4-1 RET | Elina Svitolina | Garbine Muguruza |
| 1st Serve % | 76% (16 of 21) | 80% (12 of 15) |
| Aces | 1 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 75% (12 of 16) | 41% (5 of 12) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 60% (3 of 5) | 100% (3 of 3) |
| Break Point Conversions | 33% (1 of 3) | 0% (0 of 2) |
| Receiving Points Won | 46% (7 of 15) | 28% (6 of 21) |
| Total Points Won | 22 | 14 |
| Quarter Final | ||
| 6-2 7-6(9) | Elina Svitolina | Karolina Pliskova |
| 1st Serve % | 63% (45 of 71) | 46% (29 of 63) |
| Aces | 4 | 4 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 71% (32 of 45) | 58% (17 of 29) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 46% (12 of 26) | 44% (15 of 34) |
| Break Point Conversions | 71% (5 of 7) | 33% (3 of 9) |
| Receiving Points Won | 49% (31 of 63) | 38% (27 of 71) |
| Total Points Won | 75 | 59 |
| Third Round | ||
| 3-6 6-0 6-0 | Elina Svitolina | Mona Barthel |
| 1st Serve % | 58% (45 of 77) | 50% (38 of 76) |
| Aces | 0 | 4 |
| Double Faults | 5 | 10 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 68% (31 of 45) | 65% (25 of 38) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 40% (13 of 32) | 15% (6 of 38) |
| Break Point Conversions | 66% (8 of 12) | 25% (3 of 12) |
| Receiving Points Won | 59% (45 of 76) | 42% (33 of 77) |
| Total Points Won | 89 | 64 |
| Second Round | ||
| 6-4 7-6(11) | Elina Svitolina | Alize Cornet |
| 1st Serve % | 61% (61 of 100) | 58% (52 of 89) |
| Aces | 1 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 55% (34 of 61) | 65% (34 of 52) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 58% (23 of 39) | 40% (15 of 37) |
| Break Point Conversions | 50% (3 of 6) | 28% (2 of 7) |
| Receiving Points Won | 44% (40 of 89) | 43% (43 of 100) |
| Total Points Won | 97 | 92 |
| First Round (Bye) | ||
| Simona Halep | ||
| Semi Final | ||
| 7-5 6-1 | Simona Halep | Kiki Bertens |
| 1st Serve % | 74% (37 of 50) | 67% (45 of 67) |
| Aces | 0 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 67% (25 of 37) | 57% (26 of 45) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 61% (8 of 13) | 27% (6 of 22) |
| Break Point Conversions | 40% (6 of 15) | 25% (2 of 8) |
| Receiving Points Won | 52% (35 of 67) | 34% (17 of 50) |
| Total Points Won | 68 | 49 |
| Quarter Final | ||
| 6-2 6-4 | Simona Halep | Anett Kontaveit |
| 1st Serve % | 70% (38 of 54) | 69% (47 of 68) |
| Aces | 1 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 60% (23 of 38) | 55% (26 of 47) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 68% (11 of 16) | 33% (7 of 21) |
| Winners (Includ. Service) | ||
| Break Point Conversions | 41% (5 of 12) | 40% (2 of 5) |
| Receiving Points Won | 51% (35 of 68) | 37% (20 of 54) |
| Total Points Won | 69 | 53 |
| Third Round | ||
| 6-1 4-6 6-0 | Simona Halep | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
| 1st Serve % | 67% (48 of 71) | 53% (37 of 69) |
| Aces | 1 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 4 | 6 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 68% (33 of 48) | 43% (16 of 37) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 47% (11 of 23) | 43% (14 of 32) |
| Break Point Conversions | 80% (8 of 10) | 75% (3 of 4) |
| Receiving Points Won | 56% (39 of 69) | 38% (27 of 71) |
| Total Points Won | 83 | 57 |
| Second Round | ||
| 6-4 6-4 | Simona Halep | Laura Siegemund |
| 1st Serve % | 74% (49 of 66) | 73% (52 of 71) |
| Aces | 0 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 4 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 53% (26 of 49) | 48% (25 of 52) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 41% (7 of 17) | 26% (5 of 19) |
| Break Point Conversions | 50% (7 of 14) | 71% (5 of 7) |
| Receiving Points Won | 57% (41 of 71) | 50% (33 of 66) |
| Total Points Won | 74 | 63 |
| First Round Bye | ||
Since the beginning of 2015, this will be the 9th time Simona Halep has stepping on court as a favourite in the odds range of $1.40-$1.70. She has won 7 of 8 within this price range, and on each of those 7 occasions, she has covered the -3.5 game handicap available on tonight’s match. Those 7 wins have come against Siegemund, Mladenovic, Vandeweghe, Cibulkova, Bacsinszky, Venus Williams and Muguruza. 5 of those 7 ended in straight sets, and the average number of total games across those 7 matches were 19.5 games.
In 14 finals dating back to the start of 2013, Simona Halep has been favourite. Of those 14, she won 13, and retired in 1. On clay, she has a 6-0 record in finals when favourite, and covered the -3.5 game handicap on every occasion.
I trawled through a mountain of data on Svitolina to see if I can find some relevant data on her performance in finals. Svitolina has only started as an underdog twice in a final, and she last lost both. On both occasions, she has failed to cover the +3.5 game handicap that is on offer tonight in Rome.
Suggested Bet
5 units Simona Halep to win and cover the -3.5 game handicap at $1.78 at Pinnacle (would also take -4 games)
