WTA Rome Final – Simona Halep vs Elina Svitolina

An intriguing matchup awaits us in Rome tonight, as French Open favourite Simona Halep comes up against Elina Svitolina. These two are arguably the form women coming into the most open women’s Grand Slam in the last 15 years, so this will certainly be a fascinating contest.

Road to the Final

ELINA SVITOLINA
Semi Final
4-1 RET Elina Svitolina Garbine Muguruza
1st Serve % 76% (16 of 21) 80% (12 of 15)
Aces 1 0
Double Faults 0 0
1st Serve Points Won 75% (12 of 16) 41% (5 of 12)
2nd Serve Points Won 60% (3 of 5) 100% (3 of 3)
Break Point Conversions 33% (1 of 3) 0% (0 of 2)
Receiving Points Won 46% (7 of 15) 28% (6 of 21)
Total Points Won 22 14
Quarter Final
6-2 7-6(9) Elina Svitolina Karolina Pliskova
1st Serve % 63% (45 of 71) 46% (29 of 63)
Aces 4 4
Double Faults 1 2
1st Serve Points Won 71% (32 of 45) 58% (17 of 29)
2nd Serve Points Won 46% (12 of 26) 44% (15 of 34)
Break Point Conversions 71% (5 of 7) 33% (3 of 9)
Receiving Points Won 49% (31 of 63) 38% (27 of 71)
Total Points Won 75 59
Third Round
3-6 6-0 6-0 Elina Svitolina Mona Barthel
1st Serve % 58% (45 of 77) 50% (38 of 76)
Aces 0 4
Double Faults 5 10
1st Serve Points Won 68% (31 of 45) 65% (25 of 38)
2nd Serve Points Won 40% (13 of 32) 15% (6 of 38)
Break Point Conversions 66% (8 of 12) 25% (3 of 12)
Receiving Points Won 59% (45 of 76) 42% (33 of 77)
Total Points Won 89 64
Second Round
6-4 7-6(11) Elina Svitolina Alize Cornet
1st Serve % 61% (61 of 100) 58% (52 of 89)
Aces 1 2
Double Faults 2 2
1st Serve Points Won 55% (34 of 61) 65% (34 of 52)
2nd Serve Points Won 58% (23 of 39) 40% (15 of 37)
Break Point Conversions 50% (3 of 6) 28% (2 of 7)
Receiving Points Won 44% (40 of 89) 43% (43 of 100)
Total Points Won 97 92
First Round (Bye)
Simona Halep
Semi Final
7-5 6-1 Simona Halep Kiki Bertens
1st Serve % 74% (37 of 50) 67% (45 of 67)
Aces 0 2
Double Faults 0 2
1st Serve Points Won 67% (25 of 37) 57% (26 of 45)
2nd Serve Points Won 61% (8 of 13) 27% (6 of 22)
Break Point Conversions 40% (6 of 15) 25% (2 of 8)
Receiving Points Won 52% (35 of 67) 34% (17 of 50)
Total Points Won 68 49
Quarter Final
6-2 6-4 Simona Halep Anett Kontaveit
1st Serve % 70% (38 of 54) 69% (47 of 68)
Aces 1 0
Double Faults 1 1
1st Serve Points Won 60% (23 of 38) 55% (26 of 47)
2nd Serve Points Won 68% (11 of 16) 33% (7 of 21)
Winners (Includ. Service)
Break Point Conversions 41% (5 of 12) 40% (2 of 5)
Receiving Points Won 51% (35 of 68) 37% (20 of 54)
Total Points Won 69 53
Third Round
6-1 4-6 6-0 Simona Halep Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
1st Serve % 67% (48 of 71) 53% (37 of 69)
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 4 6
1st Serve Points Won 68% (33 of 48) 43% (16 of 37)
2nd Serve Points Won 47% (11 of 23) 43% (14 of 32)
Break Point Conversions 80% (8 of 10) 75% (3 of 4)
Receiving Points Won 56% (39 of 69) 38% (27 of 71)
Total Points Won 83 57
Second Round
6-4 6-4 Simona Halep Laura Siegemund
1st Serve % 74% (49 of 66) 73% (52 of 71)
Aces 0 1
Double Faults 0 4
1st Serve Points Won 53% (26 of 49) 48% (25 of 52)
2nd Serve Points Won 41% (7 of 17) 26% (5 of 19)
Break Point Conversions 50% (7 of 14) 71% (5 of 7)
Receiving Points Won 57% (41 of 71) 50% (33 of 66)
Total Points Won 74 63
First Round Bye

Since the beginning of 2015, this will be the 9th time Simona Halep has stepping on court as a favourite in the odds range of $1.40-$1.70. She has won 7 of 8 within this price range, and on each of those 7 occasions, she has covered the -3.5 game handicap available on tonight’s match. Those 7 wins have come against Siegemund, Mladenovic, Vandeweghe, Cibulkova, Bacsinszky, Venus Williams and Muguruza. 5 of those 7 ended in straight sets, and the average number of total games across those 7 matches were 19.5 games.

In 14 finals dating back to the start of 2013, Simona Halep has been favourite. Of those 14, she won 13, and retired in 1. On clay, she has a 6-0 record in finals when favourite, and covered the -3.5 game handicap on every occasion.

I trawled through a mountain of data on Svitolina to see if I can find some relevant data on her performance in finals. Svitolina has only started as an underdog twice in a final, and she last lost both. On both occasions, she has failed to cover the +3.5 game handicap that is on offer tonight in Rome.

Suggested Bet

5 units Simona Halep to win and cover the -3.5 game handicap at $1.78 at Pinnacle (would also take -4 games)

Author

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